Paper Bags, Therapy Sessions and Psychoses: a Mostly Eagles Mailbag
Part 2 of Week 9 NFL Mailbag finds Eagles fans once again on the counseling couch while Cowboys fans try to steer the attention back to their attention-craving team.
This is Part 2 of Week 9 Mailbag. Part 1 covered Colts, Patriots, Seahawks and Steelers questions, plus a few others. Part 3 will cover questions that require more research and some esoteric topics. This segment is about the Eagles and Cowboys, plus some bits on announcers and the fallout from the NBA gambling scandal.
Jerry Jones is Voltaire, and me and my fellow Cowboys fans are Candide. Prove me wrong. – EGTuna
That would make the Micah Parsons trade the 1755 Lisbon earthquake which unmoored European intellectualism from Christian theocentrism! That might be overstating things a smidge.
No, Cowboys fans are Candide and his little Scooby Gang. Jerrah is the clueless philosophical and clerical elite of the 18th century. AND I AM VOLTAIRE.
Mike, just how much does Jerrah regret trading Micah Parsons, and how will the Cowboys find a way to squander their extra picks? – Lenny
Regret requires introspection. Jerrah is incapable of introspection. His brain tossed a word salad about draft capital and cap compliance as a justification for his summer-long temper tantrum about Parsons, everyone in his sphere nodded solemnly about the team’s fate, and that became the Cowboys’ reality.
The Cowboys usually draft rather well. They won’t squander the extra picks any worse than any other team would. Instead, they will fail to extend George Pickens, let useful players like Donovan Wilson and Jalen Tolbert walk, try to fill up their roster with other teams’ failed prospects in free agency and enter the 2026 season with another roster that is mostly icing, plus a little unbaked cake.
Paper Bags, Therapy Sessions and Psychoses
Hello! I’m the anxiety-riddled Eagles homer you asked for! I will be meeting with my therapist this afternoon. People keep saying the Eagles are definitely trading A.J. Brown some point prior to the 2026 season, and *checks dead cap hit to fit logic into the collective hysterics* there is absolutely no way an A.J. Brown trade occurs prior to the calendar year 2027, right? Right? RIGHT?!? My therapist looks forward to seeing me. – Justin
The dead cap hit Justin is referring to amounts to roughly $46 million if the Eagles trade Brown now and the same amount if they wait until the offseason. You will see numbers like $89 million on Over the Cap because Brown’s contract is loaded with HowieBucks: option bonuses extending through 2033. There’s some confusing Mafia accounting at work. Even at $46 million, we’re talking about a horse pill fit for a dragon.
Matt Lombardo reminded me on the Between the Hashmarks podcast of both the Brown cap situation and the general quietness on the trade-deadline front. Some national experts have framed the Brown trade story as: everyone says there is no news, WHICH MEANS THEY ARE HIDING SOMETHING. I usually scoff at that sort of thing, yet I cannot shake the impression that there’s some smoke here.
One thing is certain: lots of Eagles fans have soured on Brown. Do you know what happens to Philly superstars after the fans sour on them? They usually hang around for three more years, making all parties increasingly miserable.
What, in your opinion, is realistic compensation for AJ Brown? I think anything short of a first, second (year doesn’t matter) and someone who can beat out Jahan Dotson on the depth chart is Howie outsmarting himself. – Tom Burton
No one is giving up all of that at the trade deadline for Brown! A team with a wide receiver good enough to be the Eagles’ WR2 probably is not trading for Brown because … they have a wide receiver good enough to be the Eagles’ WR2.
A first-round pick in 2026 is probably Howie’s minimum. Otherwise, he doesn’t eat the cap hit.
Oh, and there are analysts out there who claim that the “year doesn’t matter” when talking about draft capital: a 2026 first-round pick is worth just as much as one in 2027 or 2028. If you believe that, I would love to purchase your car. I will pay you its current Blue Book value. In 2045.
AJ is 28 and Jalen is 27. Surely two highly-paid professional athletes can figure out their differences after winning the freaking super bowl??? Why is the lesson with this team always the 2023 collapse (none of the coordinators remain, and much of the defense is turned over) and TO doing situps in his drive way? Can we enjoy a sport in Philadelphia??? *Screams into paper bag* – Mike K
Keep in mind that 28 is 14 in wide receiver maturity years but more like 56 in wide receiver close-to-retirement years.
Fame, wealth and success are more likely to break up relationships among quarter-life-aged high-achiever types than strengthen them. I base this insight on pretty much every rock band ever, plus a few zillion celebrity marriages.
I don’t think the Eagles themselves are trapped in permanent 2023 Groundhog Day. Their “lesson” from that year, after all, was to keep the band together and work things out. But many fans are stuck in the one gloomy six-week period of the last five years. It’s part of the neurosis. It’s like a maintenance medication against disappointment and grief, with side effects which include disappointment and grief.
Let’s continue on this tack.
Why do the Eagles seem to constantly underperform their offensive talent level? It seems most pundits rank the Eagles’ offensive roster as being top-5 at worst over the past several years, and yet their DVOA has been more middling (12th last year). Is the problem with DVOA, coaching, or the so-called “experts” evaluating their talent? Or do the star players hate each other and this affects their preparation?
(Asking this question now to avoid accusations of recency bias. Also focusing on offense because the Eagles have seen less turnover there than on D.) – Tim Wescott
Ah, we’ve reached the Why Did the Eagles Underperform in 2024, the year when (checks notes) they clobbered the dynasty of the era to win the Super Bowl stage of Philly fan neurosis. We’re doing great!
The Eagles currently rank 9th in offensive DVOA. They ranked 12th in 2024, 10th in nightmarish 2023 and third in 2022. That third-place finish in their first NFC Championship year, with Shane Steichen as offensive coordinator, set expectations and perceptions for the Eagles offense very high, both for fans and analysts. Since then, the Eagles offense has pretty consistently hovered around 10th in the NFL.
Steichen appears to be a top-tier offensive showrunner when not trying to turn a moonlighting small forward with minimal football experience and iffy workplace readiness into a quarterback. He may have set an unrealistic bar for his successors.
Jalen Hurts is not in a tier with Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen or Lamar Jackson. That’s a restrictor on the offense, at least when compared to other Super Bowl regulars.
The offensive line has suffered attrition and age over the last few years. It’s still a top-10ish line, but the 2022 line was the best in the NFL. The Lions and Bills now have the NFL’s best offensive lines, plus great talent elsewhere, so it’s not surprising to see them both ahead of the Eagles in offensive categories.
When Joe Burrow is healthy, the Bengals are usually ahead of the Eagles in offensive production, and I would argue Burrow-Chase-Higgins-Rando over Hurts-Brown-Smitty-Saquon in a battle of offensive talent. The Bengals also usually MUST be playing at absolute peak offensive capacity. A team with margin for error will often end up using some of it.
All of that said: a) “Pundits” tend to just rattle off famous names and make guesses; while b) Eagles fans may be stunned to learn that the team currently ranks 9th in offensive DVOA, not 84th or something. All fans compare the team they watch intently for three hours each Sunday with 31 highlight reels and box scores, creating a warped perception of how their team compares to the rest of the league. Eagles fans are warped in a particular way.
There’s an expectation that the Eagles offense will always be perfect or look like it did in last year’s NFC Championship Game. There’s room for improvement. But there’s also the Eagles fan obsession with pessimism and disappointment.
I get that there are a lot of Eagles fans here, and you do a pretty decent job of explaining their various, um, psychosis, I guess? But seriously, many fan bases would love to have a team so consistently successful and exciting. Why can’t you just enjoy it??!! – Kevin Langstaff
Philly sports fans are hurt people who hurt people. We’re the City of Brotherly Trust Issues. Daddy went out for smokes and didn’t come back for 47 years for Eagles fans and 28 years for Phillies fans. He left in 1975 for Flyers fans and still hasn’t returned. And let’s leave the Sixers out of this.
The dysfunctionality is generational. After two Super Bowl victories in a decade, it is also ridiculous. I hope my sons’ generation finally break the cycle. They will probably end up red-faced screaming about Philly’s professional video-gaming team or something.
Tom Brady and Brady-Adjacent Questions
When did broadcast announcers start referring to QBs (and only QBs) by their first names? Perhaps it’s a small thing, but it’s not great for maintaining an air of objectivity when you are on a first name basis with Josh, Lamar, Patrick, et al. – Craig
Play-by-play announcers and color commentators should aim for clarity, then economy, with narrative gusto a distant third.
Some NFL players are instantly recognizable by their first names: Saquon, Bijan, Tyreek, Deebo, Tua. Announcers often call them by their first names. That’s a good thing: “Bijan” is both clearer and more evocative and less ambiguous than “Robinson.” “Tagovailoa” is a five-syllable mouthful; he could be on the ground by the time the play-by-play announcer spits it out.
On the flip side, it’s ridiculous to call Flacco or Burrow “Joe.” Patrick Mahomes is the most famous “Mahomes” in American sports history – his dad is a far-distant second – while “Patrick” is a common first and last name. Mahomes should always be Mahomes.
Lamar Jackson is a borderline case, because there may be multiple “Jacksons” in any given game, and he’s the NFL’s most famous “Lamar.” If you hear, “Lamar takes off,” you get a pretty unambiguous and exciting mental image of what is happening.
I don’t listen to announcers enough to notice that there are lots of Lamar/Patrick/Josh first names being thrown around. Is this a Tom Brady thing? Rules and standards don’t apply to him, and many of these quarterbacks probably call him “Sir.” Tony Romo can also be too cute and chummy. I don’t think the play-by-play announcers do it much. Let me know in the comments.
A related thought:
I have to say I’m truly shocked by the improvement in Tom Brady as an announcer. He was so awful last year I thought “mediocre” was too high a bar for him to ever reach, but somehow he’s become decent. I don’t always feel obligated to lunge for the mute button whenever he’s talking any more. Sometimes he even has something interesting to say. I never thought he’d get to this point. Are you as surprised by this as I am? – Ken Kousen
I rarely listen! The Brady broadcast was playing at max volume in the tavern during Sunday’s Eagles game, however, and I didn’t suffer the throbbing headache his nasally voice and sweaty diatribes sometimes left me with last year.
Fox’s lead producer Richie Zyontz told The Athletic’s Richard Deitsch what Brady worked to improve upon in the offseason:
Tom is a walking encyclopedia. His wisdom is beyond belief. You know how to start a thought. Everyone can start a thought, but it’s: What’s the exit ramp for that thought? How do you end the thought? And I think that there’s where we still need to improve. But I think it’s imminently fixable.
As someone who has attended broadcaster training workshops (long ago!), I know that this is something television producers work on with inexperienced “talent.” Pause before speaking. Take a breath. Express one clear thought, slowly. Brady has probably applied these simple fixes. Whatever his other flaws, he takes professionalism very seriously.
Brady’s breakthrough probably looked something like this:
I’m Shocked — Shocked!!! — to Discover Gambling in This Mailbag
There’s a lot of posts on social media with a play and then something like, “Someone important clearly had money on team X. That’s why the zebras threw the flag against team Y.”
I don’t have a specific question, other than can you give your general thoughts on gambling’s influence on results? The 1919 World Series exists, but that was over 100 years ago. If you look at America today, I probably don’t have to convince you that money corrupts a lot of our systems. – Mike Schobazaford
There have been many sports gambling scandals between the Black Sox and the latest NBA scandal! That said, I sincerely believe that gambling rarely impacts the results of sporting events. What impact it might have is just part of the ambient radioactivity of chaos and randomness that defines the human experience. Maybe a guy bet the Under on his own prop, or maybe he’s hungover, or had a fight with his wife/quarterback, or maybe he just dropped the damn ball. The wager feels like the least likely explanation on that list.
Harumph and call me naive if you like. But if I thought the NFL was rotten to the core, if I thought referees were betting on games and steering the results, I would not be doing this. And if you felt that way – not in the immediate wake of a scandal, but on any given Sunday – would you be reading this?
(I have colleagues who will sometimes grumble about how the whole league is corrupt, playing patty-cake with gamblers, addicted to the Venom serum, whatever. I end up asking: why spend three hours studying some draft pick’s footwork or explaining Cover-2 Invert if you really think that way? Why care about techniques and statistics at all if wins and losses come down to who pays whom, takes which sci-fi steroid, agrees with the commish politically or activates the largest fanbase? The unspoken answer is that the grumbling is just a world-weary affectation.)
Also … consider some social-media housekeeping. It sounds like you are encountering a lot of shitposters. The former Twitter, in particular, is steering a lot of zero-faith engagement pushers and bots into the slots in users’ timelines which once contained reporters, analysts and interesting humans.
Considering what went down last week in the NBA (Billups, etc.) I think that prop bets may end up being outlawed. How much do you think will affect the NFL if props are out? –BlueMoon73
Forgive me if I am uninformed about NBA matters, but I think of the current scandal as a pointshaving situation. The issue is not player props per se, but the over-under and backdoor covers on lopsided lines. The smart Wiseguy doesn’t put a huge wager on Terry Rozier’s point total, but the under in a Heat game or a 10-point underdog opponent; the total handle is much larger, so a sudden influx of money is less likely to be noticed.
Pointshaving is a longstanding college basketball problem, and it predates the era when it was easy to bet individual player props.
Once legislators or leagues start policing individual types of wagers, another set of problems arises. The daily fantasy market is essentially built around bundles of prop bets. It just won its legal freedom in most states less than a decade ago. The biggest DFS providers are now also sportsbooks and online casinos, and vice versa. They are huge and powerful, with political lobbyists on the payroll. Love or hate the fact that DraftKings is in bed with teams and television networks, it’s a reality that will make sudden, sweeping changes to the gambling landscape difficult.
Long story short, I don’t think prop bets will be outlawed. It’s not feasible, and it won’t solve whatever problem it’s supposed to solve.
The NBA scandal is very recent and very dramatic. Humans, individually and as groups, overreact to recent, dramatic events. Governing bodies, of leagues and of nations, know the value of chewing up the clock, whether for fiendish, benevolent or simply logistical reasons. Let’s see how this scandal looks in 30 days. I’m guessing that nuking the legal gambling industry will no longer be on the menu of solutions.
In light of the flurry of NBA/mob gambling scandal news: what prop football bets could realistically be manipulated (other than faking an injury to cover an under on some stat).
My belief that “pros don’t tank due to their massive income levels” is shaken. — Mike Desautels
Football doesn’t have the superstar at the free-throw line with one minute left and a nine-point lead: a play which requires no teammate support, where a brick impacts nothing but the spread/over/props. The free-throw line has been the devil’s playground for wiseguys since college basketball’s postseason NIT was created largely to give New York gamblers some busywork before baseball season in the late 1930s.
So while any prop bet is theoretically susceptible to gambler interference, there’s no obvious football play or angle. The kicker who misses a late field goal might lose his job AND get death threats; its not the same as bricking a free throw. The best way for a quarterback to guarantee going Under on a passing prop is to kick the crap out of the opponent and spend the fourth quarter handing off or on the bench. If you are a mobster approaching the quarterback, it’s either to throw the game outright or you are doing mobstering wrong.
Again: I believe most pros do not tank because of their income levels, ambition, sports culture, the pressure to succeed and simple morality. I understand why your belief is shaken. But I don’t think the major sports are rife with gambling, if for no other reason that there are much easier illegal ways of making money than whatever the hell was going on with that NBA scandal.
IN TOMORROW’S MAILBAG: Complicated answers to esoteric questions!
