Revenge of the Angry Patriots & Colts Fans! (Mailbag, Part 1)

Welcome to Part 1 of a three-part NFL Week 9 Mailbag. This installment mostly covers questions about non-Eagles/Cowboys teams that have been enjoying success while enduring some signature Too Deep Snark and Skepticism.

The Mighty Indianapolis Colts

Hi Mike, just checking in with some receipts.

On Sep 24th you said “Folks, Daniel Jones has not suddenly gotten good. He has faced two scout-team defenses with no pass rushers or cornerbacks. He’s having, at best, a variation on his 2022 season. It’s important for me to know that you know this,” when I asked if the resurgence of Danny Dimes is a red flag when it comes to letting Brian Daboll develop the Giants’ young QB. Do you feel differently now, and why is the answer “yes”? – JT

It’s funny that you are checking in right after the Colts beat the exact same scout team defense they beat before your previous question!

The Colts have beaten the 27th ranked (per DVOA) Titans defense twice and the 29th ranked Dolphins defense. The Raiders rank 30th in overall DVOA despite a middle-of-the-pack defense; the Colts scored three touchdowns off interceptions and a blocked punt in that game.

The three Colts wins over quality opponents: the 2-4 Cardinals with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback, the Chargers with Austin Hit The Deculus and Bobby Hart at tackle, and the Broncos on a fourth-quarter comeback and epic officiating fiat.

I am not trying to explain away the Colts success, simply offer analysis with predictive value. The Colts offense has looked solid against quality defenses like the Broncos and Chargers. It would be foolish, however, to not assume there’s some helium in both their record and their raw stats, based on who they have played.

As for Jones: he leads the NFL in DVOA through Week 8 and is clearly having the best season of his career. My September 24th appraisal was based on the best available evidence. Jones had just beaten Anthony Richardson for the starting job on August 19th, for heaven’s sake.

I feel comfortable stating that Jones will fall back toward the second quartile of NFL quarterbacks by season’s end, but he will not fall back to 2019-to-training-camp Daniel Jones.

And Daboll? You’re seeing what we’re seeing. Right?

Do you believe in the Colts? Can they beat the Chiefs or Bills? – Mitch

We will find out about the Chiefs in Week 12.

Look at it this way: the very notion that the 2025 Colts could challenge the Chiefs or Bills – assuming no quarterback injuries were involved – would have sounded absurdly silly 60 days ago. It is less silly now. But it is never good analysis to leap from “absurdly silly” to “yeah, that what’s gonna happen” in the course of two months, when the initial impressions were based on years of evidence.

Should Chris Ballard go for it and trade for a Edge Rusher or a CB? I feel the Offense is good enough to make a deep playoff run. – Glen ray

Another reader chimes in here:

Sir, Chris Ballard’s prime directive is to retain his job for as long as possible via anonymity. He isn’t going to roll the dice and risk someone noticing him! You’d have to think if the Colts had a losing record right now they’d already be shortlisting replacements. So surely he doesn’t want to rock the boat now when he can play the blockbuster trade card in future when he needs a last roll of the dice and doesn’t need to worry about future picks? – Robbie Baragwnath

Indeed, Ballard is not exactly known for his wheeler-dealer capabilities or proclivities. I can hear him in my head now, justifying a quiet trade deadline by citing continuity and culture.

Edge rusher does not seem to be that big of a problem, despite recent injuries to Samson Ebukam and Tyquan Lewis, both of which appear to be short term. Cornerback is much more of an emergency, though Charvarius Ward (concussion) should be back by the time the schedule heats up.

Cam Taylor-Britt and Alontae Taylor are among the usual suspects on the trade rumor mill. Either would be worth a mid-round pick. But teams like the Eagles, Lions, Packers and Bears may also be in the market for a cornerback. Ballard will fold if there’s a bidding war.

The New England Patriots and Drake Maye

How good are the Patriots really? I feel like you’ve been skating around them in your recent walkthroughs and would like your honest opinion. – Adam Hart

The Patriots currently rank 12th in weighted DVOA. They rank 11th in offense, 20th in defense and 14th in special teams. I think they are better than the Steelers, who are just ahead of them.

Per DVOA, the Patriots have faced the easiest schedule in the NFL by a wide margin and will face the NFL’s third-easiest schedule moving forward. Aaron Schatz told me on Monday’s podcast that the Patriots will no longer be facing a historically-easy schedule, because the Ravens (their Week 16 opponent) have stabilized significantly. The easy schedule nerfs their DVOA values while inflating their record, reputation and raw stats.

One reason I have been skating around the Patriots is their schedule. A related reason: Sunday bandwidth. The Patriots faced the Titans and Browns in Sunday early-window games over the last two weeks. Those were bottom-priority games. When pre-planning Walkthrough – especially the part where I beg the manager at my local tavern to switch some televisions from the Eagles to a different game – Bills-Panthers ranked well ahead of Patriots-Browns, as it featured two winning teams going in different directions entering Sunday. I can make time to watch replays and analyze surprising upsets that I did not watch live, but not blowouts.

The Patriots will probably get a spotlight in Week 10 against the Buccaneers. And they are getting one here!

Please temper expectations and/or drive a stake into the hearts of Pats fans and their Drake Maynia -- or at least promise us he’s not really a top MVP candidate, right? – Chillzilla

The Patriots should expect a playoff berth this season by virtue of their improvement and their schedule.

Like any fanbase reacting to a new coach getting results, Patriots fans are likely to imbue Mike Vrabel and their team with all sorts of magical properties and wax poetic about the team’s culture. Patriots fans are more prone to magical thinking than most — they spent an entire generation in a fairytale kingdom — and are also more numerous than most. We therefore get a bit of an echo chamber effect when the Patriots are playing well.

Drake Maye is now +500 to win MVP, behind only Patrick Mahomes (+115) and Josh Allen (+350). He’s ahead of Baker Mayfield (+1400), Matthew Stafford (+1600), Daniel Jones (+1600) and Jared Goff (+2000); the latter two suffer from ball-knower cooties.

Some of the cool-kid ball knowers have hopped on the Maye bandwagon, because that is how cool kids remain cool. That said, there’s nothing inherently ridiculous about a young quarterback on an epic hot streak leaping onto the MVP leaderboards. The actual balloting tends to be rather conservative, however. And Maye’s pace will cool once the Patriots face their scant handful of real opponents.

A Dolphins fan’s perspective:

I’m hoping Maye turns out to be a one-year wonder like Mac Jones, but, somehow this one may turn out differently. – FinsUp72

I love trolling Patriots fans about Mac Jones more than I love a thick slab of scrapple. Both the hype surrounding Maye and the creamy schedule he has faced conjure memories of Jones in 2021. But I regret to inform Dolphins fans that Maye is outperforming 2021 Jones and is far more impressive, both on tape and with a tape measure.

Seattle Seahawks, and More

Let’s talk Seahawks. Are you putting them up there with the 2007 Patriots or are they closer to the Greatest Show on Turf? — Kevin Langstaff

Good heavens, at least compare them to the Legion of Boom or something grungy-cool and plausible!

It must be tough for Seahawks fans to have a team this good, only for the Colts to score a million points and for Patriots fans to demand that Mount Rushmore be replaced with three stone images of Drake Maye and one of Mike Vrabel. Heck, fans in Seattle weren’t even paying attention until last week, because of the Mariners.

Which is the real Sam Darnold? The one who looks actually good for 3.5 quarters or the one who produces “OMG! No he didn’t!” turnovers for at least one drive per game? – Tim Williams

Same dude.

We overrate late-game heroics AND pratfalls. We are often much harder on the pratfalls. The “heroics,” like the ones Baker Mayfield performed over the first third of the season, at least usually involve a whole series of clutch plays. Darnold got strip-sacked by Nick Freakin’ Bosa at the end of a potential game-winning drive in Week 1. He had just led two fourth-quarter comeback drives against the Bucs before Lavonte Freakin’ David picked him off. We’re talking about two plays involving plausible Hall of Freakin’ Fame defenders here.

Darnold has been steadily improving since 2020. He was better on the Panthers than the Jets, better with the 2022 Panthers (after Matt Rhule was fired) than the 2021 Panthers (despite an early-season hot streak), better with the Vikings than the Panthers, and he is now producing better numbers with weaker playmakers than he produced for the Vikings. He’s also only 28 years old.

Like many other successful quarterbacks, Darnold is likely to struggle under heavy pressure for the rest of his career. He will never be in the Mahomes-Allen class. But we should not keep waiting for some other shoe to drop.

Mike, as we head to midseason, do you think John Schneider should be NFL Executive of the Year? We all scoffed when he remade his offense, but it sure looks like he was prescient in doing so.

If not him, then who? I think Shane Steichen will be getting the lion’s (horse’s?) share of the credit in Indianapolis. – Ken Raining

I love Schneider for Executive of the Year, for the reasons you stated.

Steichen will indeed get most of the credit for the Colts; he’s +120 for Coach of the Year. Chris Ballard will deservedly get the broken clock/blind squirrel treatment. Patriots Homer Media will scream for Elliott Wolf, then go back to fanning Mike Vrabel with palm fronds and feeding him grapes.

Schneider executed a shrewd combination of additions and subtractions in the offseason. The draft class (Grey Zabel, Elijah Arroyo, Tory Horton) looks pretty sweet so far, too.

I’m happy Denver is 6-2. But Bo Nix jokes aside, the thing that will keep it from being sustainable is the sheer amount of penalties this team commits each week. By one count, they have 14 offensive holding and 12 DPI fouls, compared to the See No Evil Chiefs who have all of 3 DPI on the year. When you’re the most penalized team in the league, you get no benefit of the doubt. Pretty sure Riley Moss just got flagged for ordering off the Happy Hour menu after 6:00 pm.

How do they clean this up, or is this something not actually that concerning to Sean Payton? – Tom C.

I LOL’d at Moss getting flagged for wanting his discount baby back ribs in gloopy sauce at 6:17 PM.

The Broncos have the second-worst penalty differential in the NFL at -142 yards. The Bears have a whopping -279 penalty differential. I would explore that figure in more detail, but none of you asked Bears questions.

Moss is a handsy defender. NFLGSIS charges him with eight pass interference penalties this season. Two of the ones I witnessed, most notably the potential game-loser against the Giants, were pretty tacky. The concern, with Patrick Surtain out, is that Moss will be covering even tougher receivers and either drawing more penalties or not playing his style of defense and getting burned as a result.

Many of the Broncos’ holding penalties have been on Trent Sherfield and Adam Trautman: a receiver and tight end, blocking on sweeps and screens. There have also been seven ineligible man downfield fouls, which are often a product of an offense loaded with screens. Sean Payton can clean some of this up in practice. Sherfield’s snap counts have diminished lately.

For the sake of thoroughness: Broncos games have been officiated by eight different crews. Nothing of note there.

Penalty differentials tend to fluctuate. But fears that the Broncos will be flagged into oblivion at Arrowhead in the playoffs are legitimate. Especially if Moss is covering Rashee Rice.

What the hell is Carolina doing with their RBs? Why wouldn’t they let Rico’s Roughnecks ride? (shout out Starship Troopers, what-what!) – Kevin Langstaff

When Chuba Hubbard was injured and Rico Dowdle served as the Panthers’ workhorse, the Panthers rushed for 239 yards against the Dolphins and 216 yards against the Cowboys, averaging 7.5 and 5.7 yards per carry in those games.

Hubbard returned, the two backs became a platoon, and the Panthers rushed for 125 and 114 yards against the Jets and Bills, averaging 4.3 and 4.1 yards per carry. Hubbard has averaged 2.2 and 2.8 yards per carry in the last two games, Dowdle 4.6 and 6.8.

There are all sorts of co-variables at play: the Bills defense, Andy Dalton, the fact that Hubbard got a few more kill-the-clock carries than Dowdle against the Jets. And Hubbard is a fine running back. But I think the Panthers are either guilty of being too clever or too loyal to Hubbard.

Remember how folks used to joke that Dean Smith was the only coach who could stop Michael Jordan (by forcing him to play within a conservative system)? Folks in Panthers country remember. And while Dowdle ain’t Jordan, Dave Canales ain’t Dean Smith, either.

What’s been the most inexplicable result so far this year? Browns over Packers? Falcons over Bills? Giants over Eagles? I still think the Panthers shutting out the Falcons is up there, although both teams are making that seem less of a fluke. – Ken Raining

It has to be Falcons-over-Bills.

Giants-over-Eagles was a division rivalry game on Thursday night. Browns-over-Packers boiled down to 14 Packers penalties, a turnover and a blocked field goal. The Panthers shutout was impressive, but the Falcons have scored 20 points in the last two games, and seven of those were in garbage time.

The Falcons are dreadful. The Bills are recognizably the Bills. Yet that upset didn’t have a fluke-play-here-and-blown-call-there feel. It was the Falcons who left points on the board!

Raiders-over-Patriots in Week 1 also looks strange in retrospect. Both teams entered the season as Wild Card hopefuls coming off very busy offseasons, however, so it did not seem unusual at the time. The Patriots have obviously improved since then.

Twice this season I have disregarded your advice and taken the Falcons to win in my weekly football pool. The first was their brainfart against the Panthers and the second was whatever the hell happened on Sunday.

My questions are:

1) How do they keep finding novel ways to take my money? (Really?! No missed practices on an injury he played through the week before, and then no Sunday start for Michael Penix? I can’t put my kid through college on the ghost of Kirk Cousins!)

2) Are there any other games this season you would like the Falcons to lose? Because I can make that happen for you. – Jay

Jay, trying to make the Falcons lose is the only force on earth capable of making them win!

Falcons quasi-enthusiasm for 2025 rested upon:

• Michael Penix, based on his draft status and about 10 impressive passes against terrible defenses late in the 2024 season,
• First-round edge rushers James Pearce and Jalon Walker, drafted at great expense to upgrade a pass rush which has stunk since Super Bowl LI, and
• The usual well they have lots of guys who rack up fantasy stats and the division is easy logic.

The jury is still out on Penix, but he’s already endured one benching and one injury (which had soft-benching overtones) through seven games. Walker and Pearce have combined for 1.5 sacks, though the pass rush has improved somewhat. Bijan Robinson is awesome, but Drake London has been hurt. The Bucs remain strong, and the Panthers are putting up a fight.

In summary, I think the Falcons are perpetually overrated due to always having some fantasy binkies and draft darlings in starring roles. Yet it is hard for them to go belly up like the Jets, due to the NFC South, the contributions of binkies/darlings and a rugged offensive line. So they are always within a four-point spread or so of breaking all of our hearts, one way or the other.

Finally, the Pittsburgh Steelers

My fellow yinzers seem to be very invested in finding another WR for the Stillers. That would be nice. Am I the only one who can see that the defense is the real problem? — countertorque

The Steelers rank 23rd in defensive DVOA: 21st against the pass and 24th against the run. I get the impression that national analysts are well aware of the problems on defense. Both yinzers and casual fans, however, are conditioned to immediately think that it’s 1976 the moment the Steelers take the field. Defense is their IDENTITY!

The Steelers are averaging 3.9 air yards per completion, last in the NFL, below the Browns and their silly non-offense at 4.0, well below the short-pass-addicted Broncos at 4.6. I am not sure adding another wide receiver to custom-configure their offense even further around Aaron Rodgers’ weaknesses and preferences will help much. Advise your friends to ask a Jets fan how that works out.

The Ravens defense is bad because it is a M*A*S*H unit. The Cowboys defense is bad because the Cowboys are an unserious entertainment product rather than a football team. So what excuse does the Steelers defense have? — Jake

Two things pop up immediately: a high missed tackle rate and a high blitz rate which is not achieving results.

Pro Football Reference charges the Steelers with 60 missed tackles. Only the Bengals have missed (far) more. Remember: the Bengals and about half the league have played one more game than the Steelers. Patrick Queen, who has been a speedy-but-mistake-prone linebacker for much of his career, has been one of the primary culprits.

The Steelers blitz 34.3% of the time, third in the NFL behind the Vikings and (lol) Falcons, but their pressure rate of 24.2% ranks seventh. Those aren’t bad numbers, but the blitzing applies pressure on Darius Slay and Juan Thornhill, veteran newcomers in the secondary whose best seasons are behind them. Considering all the Justin Fields/Carson Wentz/Dillon Gabriel/Joe Flacco-caliber quarterbacks the Steelers faced in more than half their games, all that blitzing should have produced a bounty of sacks and turnovers. Kyle Dugger’s arrival in a trade with the Patriots should offset the temporary loss of DeShon Elliott (knee).

One other issue: rookie Derrick Harmon has been seeing increased playing time on the defensive line, and he is getting pushed around.

As mentioned above: the Steelers rank 23rd in DVOA. They’re a third-quartile defense, not a terrible defense.

Is it time to seriously wonder if the AFC North division champion will end up with a losing record? The Steelers remaining schedule is pretty nasty and everyone else has dug themselves an impressively deep early hole. I’m dreamboarding this as Tomlin having his first losing season while somehow still managing to win the AFC North, causing heads all over Western PA to explode. — Will

Per DVOA analysis, the Steelers have a 47.9% chance of winning the AFC North, with a mean projection of 8.7 wins. The Ravens have a 47.1% chance of winning, with a mean projection of 8.1 wins.

So dreamboard away! But its just as likely that Tomlin will find a way for the Steelers to finish with a record of 8.7-and-8.3.