Fernando Mendoza, System QB

Fernando Mendoza’s film be like: RPO, quick out, RPO that’s also a quick out, gawky scramble, sideline 50-50 ball, RPO, screen, sack, quick out, third-and-short QB draw, sideline 50-50 ball, RPO, gawky scramble that somehow wins the national championship.

The film isn’t bad, mind you: the quarterback who threw 41 touchdown passes and led Indiana through the toughest playoff gauntlet in college football history is good, actually. But you definitely notice Curt Cignetti’s system as much as its operator.

Mendoza led the nation with 103 RPO dropbacks. He went 77-of-97 for 687 yards, 7 touchdowns, one interception and a few scrambles on those dropbacks. One fourth (25.6%) of Mendoza’s pass attempts were RPOs.

Mendoza also tied for first in the nation with 57 pass attempts labeled as “outs,” going 50-of-57 for 417 yards, 3 touchdowns and one interception on such passes.

Some outs are also RPOs, of course. Mendoza threw 41 outs which were not marked as RPOs in the Sports Info Solutions database. That was still one of the highest figures in the nation.

There’s nothing wrong with throwing lots of RPOs and outs. Heck, quarterbacks have been drafted in the first round after spending most of their college careers throwing slot screens. All of the short, safe passes can pad statistics, however, while almost hypnotizing viewers into thinking they are seeing something more. RPOs and quick outs demonstrate a quarterback’s ability to execute quick, scripted pass plays: easy reads, easy throws. Those are rather remedial skills for an NFL quarterback. Mendoza’s double-deluxe mastery of those skills doesn’t make them less remedial.

Fortunately, Mendoza throws a reassuringly accurate deep ball.

Here are Mendoza’s stats on passes of 20+ air yards in 2025: 28-of-52, 933 yards, 11 touchdowns, zero interceptions. Mendoza’s completion rate of 53.8% on 20+ air-yard passes ranked second in the nation to Oregon’s Dante Moore. For comparison’s sake, Ty Simpson only completed 50% of his passes of 10+ air yards. (Simpson completed 37.3% of 20+ air-yard passes, a low figure for a possible first-round pick.)

Sports Info Solutions marked 59.2% of Mendoza’s extra-deep passes (20+ air yards) as “on target.” That figure ranked third in the nation among quarterbacks with 50+ attempts, behind Moore and Trinidad Chambliss of Ole Miss. Simpson’s figure was a respectable 44.8%.

Mendoza’s on-target rate on extra-deep passes at Cal in 2024 was 69.7%, though he completed just 41.7% of those passes because he did not have Elijah Sarratt and Omar Cooper to throw to. Mendoza’s deep ball capability, therefore, appears to be a sustainable skill.

Mendoza can pinpoint receivers’ hands downfield and deliver the football with touch and timing. He also throws accurate back-shoulder passes. And Mendoza is not afraid to throw the ball away rather than attempt anything too risky, a skill which will surely make Klint Kubiak nod approvingly.

The deep sideline shots, it should be noted, also appear to be scripted. It looks like Mendoza was often instructed to throw the go-route to his first read if Surratt or Cooper was in man coverage. Hence, many quick decisions and deep shots to well-covered receivers. That’s not an unusual college tactic, but it’s another indication of how much work Mendoza’s system and supporting cast might have been doing for him.

Mendoza’s mobility is a minor asset. He moves well for a 6-foot-5 dude. He looks a little like David Byrne or Elaine Benes dancing sometimes, but it gets him away from the first defender.

Mendoza can skitter around the pocket to buy time. He finds dump-off targets when he’s on the move. He will rumble forward for some yardage on scrambles and the very occasional keeper in the NFL. But Mendoza sometimes scrambles himself into jeopardy, and he can be dragged down from behind by the typical NFL edge rusher.

Between the short passes on the run, the throwaways and a game-winning gutsy-guy scramble here and there, Mendoza should be just effective enough outside of structure to complement the meat-and-potatoes stuff he can do within structure. NFL fans may yawn, but Mendoza is the sort of quarterback prospect that people named Kubiak covet.

These draft capsules are usually written to serve as arguments. This is why the quarterback prospect is good. Or bad. Or under/overrated. Here’s why the team who drafts him will succeed/fail. Here is the secret observation or nugget that everyone else has missed.

There is no point framing an argument around Mendoza. He’s QB1 in this draft. There is no QB2. The Raiders are drafting Mendoza. They’ve done nothing to suggest any second thoughts or possible alternatives.

No one with any credibility ranks Mendoza in the Trevor Lawrence S-tier of recent quarterback prospects. No one but the dedicated naysayers foresee an epic bust. Mendoza is the brewpub burger with a side of housemade chips. He’ll be a disappointment if you were expecting a porterhouse but a pleasant surprise if you were expecting microwaved fast food.

Mendoza reminds me of a larger version of Baker Mayfield. He shares Mayfield’s quirky mobility, alertness in a collapsing pocket, and touch/accuracy on intermediate routes. He’s hyperconfident in a Mayfield-esque way, though he doesn’t come across as nearly as much of an asshole as the young Mayfield did. There are differences – Mayfield was and is a more daring risk taker – but I can imagine Mendoza experiencing the same kinds of ups and downs Mayfield encountered early in his career. He will probably cope with some of the same organizational eccentricities Mayfield dealt with when he played for the Browns.

Mendoza’s championship run was so much like Sam Darnold’s championship run with Kubiak as his offensive coordinator that it’s tempting to draw parallels. Here were two systemy quarterbacks, at the helm of powerhouse teams, almost concurrently stringing together enough routine and clutch plays to win big game after big game. What could make more sense than to pair Quarterback A with Playcaller B?

The parallels diverge when you remember that Darnold was at his fifth NFL stop and that the Raiders lack both Jaxon Smith-Njigba and Mike Macdonald’s defense. Still, the Mendoza/Kubiak pairing is sensible and practical, especially by Raiders standards.

“Practical” and “sensible” may be the best thing that can be said of any team’s 2026 draft strategy. Mendoza will make the Raiders both a better team and a more normal one. Let’s not quibble about their ceiling until they scrape themselves off the floor.

Note: I also wrote about Mendoza in early October. You can crosscheck what I wrote about him then with what I am writing now if you like.

LATER TODAY: The Too Deep 96 Master List finally drops!