Can You Hear the Drums, Fernando?

Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza has risen to the top of many media draft boards. Several high-profile mock drafts this week sent him to the Jets with the top pick in 2026. It’s time to do some preliminary research on him.

Let’s check the Hoosiers’ schedule and look for some game tape.

Hmmm. Indiana has played five games this season. The first two were against Kennesaw State and Indiana State. Yoknapatawpha County Community College must have had other commitments. Indiana beat these two color guards by a combined score of 129-9. Mendoza threw nine touchdown passes in the two games. I refuse to watch these games and pretend that I am “scouting” in some meaningful way.

Instead, let’s start with Saturday’s big win over Oregon (helmed by Dante Moore, another rising prospect) and work backwards.

Fernando Mendoza vs. Oregon, with a note on Dante Moore

Mendoza is a lanky, long-levered 6-foot-5 fellow. His mechanics look fine, but his delivery is a little elongated. He runs well but doesn’t look all that shifty.

Mendoza’s bread-and-butter passes against Oregon were deep sideline outs, usually to Elijah Sarratt. There’s plenty of mustard on most of the throws. His best pass of the game was a perfectly-timed-and-placed back-shoulder throw to Sarratt for a go-ahead touchdown midway through the fourth quarter.

Mendoza’s worst throw and decision were a back-foot heave under pressure that a Ducks defender undercut for an interception. An attempted deep shot to a tight end earlier in the game really hung in the air. It was only about a 35-yard throw.

There were a few examples of Mendoza looking off his first read (Sarratt, usually) and finding an open receiver in the middle of the field against Oregon. But the gameplan was mostly deep left sideline stuff to Sarratt, shorter passes on the right side of the field to Omar Cooper, and some RPOs. Throw in some rugged running by Roman Hemby and a few big defensive plays in the fourth quarter, and it was enough for a road win against a top-ranked opponent.

For what it’s worth, Moore did not impress me at all. He has a three-quarter armed delivery. Those are everywhere now: Cam Ward, Arch Manning. Such deliveries are quick, but the ball comes at receivers at odd angles, and batted passes are a persistent concern. Moore bounced a fourth-quarter interception off a defender’s hand at about helmet height. Moore also ran out of a clean pocket once or twice. But I’m not doing a deep dive on him this week.

Fernando Mendoza vs. Illinois, with a note on RPOs

Mendoza completed several RPO slants to Sarratt and Cooper early in the game. Cooper weaved for the first Hoosiers touchdown after a receiver screen. Mendoza threaded a pass over a leaping defender to E.J. Williams in the back of the end zone for his second touchdown.

More RPO pitch-and-catch with Sarratt later set up a middle screen to running back Riley Nowakowski for a 43-yard catch-and-scamper. Mendoza nibbled away with quick outs, many of them off RPO or play action, before hitting a wide-open Sarratt to give Indiana a 35-7 lead before halftime. There was little else to see, except one more touchdown to Sarratt on a short slot slant.

Mendoza’s timing, short accuracy, chemistry with his top targets and rhythm were evident against Illinois. What wasn’t evident: any need to throw into tight windows or make decisions under duress. Mendoza was rarely pressured after one early sack. He made one short throw on the run that I recall. On keepers, he could rumble for yardage but got stopped short of the sticks any time he had to make a move.

Per Sports Info Solutions, Mendoza has thrown 51 RPO passes this season, the highest figure in the nation. Precisely one-third of his pass attempts have been RPOs so far in 2025! Mendoza was 10-of-10 for 125 yards on RPOs against Illinois and 11-of-13 for 142 yards on everything else, including two screen-and-run touchdowns.

A high RPO percentage is not a red flag for a prospect. It’s a yellow flag. RPOs are carefully-scripted easy reads and throws. They are most effective when a team is ahead of the sticks and in control of the game. RPOs require more NFL-caliber skills than the slot screens that used to pad the stats of spread-offense quarterbacks, but there’s a comparable distortion at work.

That said, five touchdowns in a blowout win over an undefeated opponent shouldn’t be line-item vetoed away. Mendoza made every throw he had to make to let the Hoosiers coast in the second half.

Fernando Mendoza vs. Iowa: A tough test

Mendoza’s best throw in Indiana’s 20-10 win over the Hawkeyes was a down-the-gun-barrel strike to Sarratt with a blitzing defender about to swallow him. His worst throw was similar: an intercepted overthrow under duress to Cooper in the middle of the field in the fourth quarter.

Mendoza’s game-winning touchdown was a short third-down slant to Sarratt, who slipped a tackle and sprinted 49 yards with 1:28 to play. That score was set up by a back-shoulder throw to Sarratt along the left sideline, though Mendoza’s two passes before the touchdown were wild pitches under pressure.

Mendoza also tossed a 37-yard teardrop along the right sideline to Williams early in the second quarter. It’s fun to type a name besides Sarratt and Cooper now and then!

Iowa has a stout pass rush. Mendoza can slide away from initial pressure, but he’s not a great improviser on the run, and his accuracy sags when he’s not set. He also takes hits. He nearly scrambled for a first down on third-and-15, but took a pop from a safety just before going out of bounds. He later bailed on a second-and-4 quick out and decided to run instead, awkwardly plunging into a throng of black jerseys and ending up bent over backwards.

Mendoza’s stats against Iowa weren’t all that gaudy, but at least he didn’t look like he was running a glorified 7-on-7 drill. He made tough throws and clutch throws. He’d be lost without Sarratt, but most top prospects have a go-to guy (or two or three). Still, it’s worth looking more closely at Mendoza’s situation before time-travelling briefly back to 2024.

A Little Context about the Indiana Hoosers

The Hoosiers football team, which spent roughly a century as little more than a long overture before basketball season, went 10-2 and reached the playoffs under coach Curt Cignetti in 2024. Kurtis Rourke threw for 3,042 yards and 29 touchdowns in 2024 while playing on a torn ACL.

To clarify: Rourke partially tore his ACL in a July practice in 2024, then fully tore it at some point during the season. He also broke the thumb on his throwing hand, forcing him to miss an October game against Washington. He played with a brace on his hand for a while. Rourke also suffered an ACL tear in 2022.

Rourke was drafted by the 49ers. Appropriate!

Anyway, the Hoosiers defense allowed just 15.6 points per game in 2024, sixth (out of 134 programs) in the nation. Among the major contributors from that team who returned in 2025: Sarratt and Oliver, defensive back Amare Ferrell (three interceptions in 2024, four this year), defensive tackle Mikail Kamara (10 sacks in 2024) and several offensive linemen from a unit which protected a quarterback who was slightly more mobile than Joe Flacco wearing concrete galoshes. Left tackle Carter Smith won the Outland Trophy as Offensive Lineman of the Week for his performance against Oregon.

Mendoza, in other words, transferred into a rather cushy situation.

None of this negates Mendoza’s accomplishments or disqualifies him from first-round consideration. It merely underlines how carefully we must tread when making evaluations based on three “real” 2025 games. Indiana is a powerhouse with a veteran roster and a stable coaching staff. An Ohio University transfer on crutches led them to a win over Michigan last year. Are we sure we are not looking at, say, some version of the typical Georgia quarterback?

Let’s follow Mendoza back to his previous stop to gather some more information.

Fernando Mendoza at Cal: Portal Calling

Mendoza led the Golden Bears back from a 21-10 fourth-quarter deficit for a 24-21 win in his final game at Cal in 2024.

The game-winning touchdown against Stanford was a 22-yard teardrop to Jonathan Brady just before a defender hammered Mendoza on third-and-long. That touchdown was set up by two passes, one of them on fourth-and-2, where Mendoza either looked off his primary target or manipulated the defense with his eyes to help a receiver get open. The first three quarters, however, were a mixed bag of ill-advised throws into traffic and sacks, interspersed with a surprising scramble (Mendoza has a third gear in a straight line) and some familiar RPOs and sideline throws, all against a weak opponent.

Curious to see what a Mendoza-led loss looks like, I watched tape of Cal’s loss to a tough Syracuse squad last November. Mendoza threw two early interceptions, one into traffic over the middle where a defender undercut the route, another a sideline 50-50 ball where the cornerback had perfect position. With the Orange leading 20-7 midway through the second quarter, Mendoza bounced a potential third interception off a defender’s belly at the left hashmark.

By the time Mendoza settled down against Syracuse, it was 27-7. A promising drive before halftime was halted by a holding penalty. A third-quarter touchdown drive featured some impressive moments, including a play where Mendoza ducked away from a would-be sack and tossed a short completion on the move. But with pressure mounting and passing windows tight, Mendoza’s quick outs looked more like sliders and his sideline deep shots sailed too far. His only touchdown pass came in true garbage time.

Mendoza missed Cal’s final 2024 regular season game due to what was reported as an illness. He then entered the transfer portal, opting out of something called the LA Bowl against UNLV, held on one of the shopping days before Christmas. Cal got hammered in both games.

Mendoza was a prized free agent (let’s call it what it is). Miami pursued Mendoza, who was born in Miami, to replace Cam Ward. But Indiana lured him with a strong program, a younger brother on the roster, and (probably) considerable moolah.

No one can fault Mendoza for skipping the Derp Bowl, or even getting the sniffles when he realized it was time to advance from the AA to AAA minors. I do want to point out, however, that major programs don’t covet experienced quarterbacks in the portal because they think they will be first-round NFL picks. Major programs are seeking quarterbacks ready to win bowls and playoff games.

The portal is also the Wild West. With quarterback prospects transferring every-which-way in the years before they enter the NFL, we need to develop tools and language to interpret their career arcs, lest “portal scouting” become the new “program scouting.” Upgrading programs and succeeding in a new environment, as Mendoza has, is an encouraging sign. But I am wary of “If Miami wanted him then he’s gotta be good” logic.

Nothing I saw from Mendoza’s performance with a six-win ACC welterweight in 2024 screamed THIS GUY WILL SOMEDAY SAVE THE JETS.

Conclusions

I don’t want to make any.

I want to see the rest of Indiana’s (suddenly not-too-intimidating) schedule play out, see what Mendoza does in the B1G Championship and playoffs, and so on. It’s my website. I don’t have to make any firm assertions if I don’t have to.

Mendoza has NFL size and a decent fastball. He just turned 22, so he’s not some overaged seventh-year senior. He seems tough. Coaches appear to trust him. Broadcasters think he can scramble, but he won’t be more than an occasional escape-up-the-middle guy in the NFL. I worry about his decision-making under pressure, his throws into traffic over the middle, and his general consistency.

The noise-to-signal ratio on Mendoza is deafeningly high right now. Two Nowhere State wins to start the 2025 season. A top-notch situation. Lots of RPOs. A pre-transfer record that’s in the eye of the beholder.

Anyone seriously claiming that Mendoza deserves to be a top-10 NFL draft pick, and who isn’t just going with the flow, is basing that assertion on about 10 total throws, like his back-shoulder touchdown to Sarratt against Oregon last week. That’s not enough of a sample to make any sort of assertion. The rest isn’t bad – which counts for something – but it’s mostly filler.

Trust me, I know how the mock draft industry works. Jordan Reid, a crackerjack draft analyst, has to link the Jets with a quarterback with the first overall pick. Jets fans expect and crave it. ESPN editors will stop just short of demanding it. I am not familiar with USA Today’s Ayrton Ostly, but he’s in the same boat as Reid. October mock drafts are fanfic for miserable fans. Few fans of 1-5 teams want to close their eyes on an autumn afternoon and fantasize about an edge rusher. Most want a quarterback. Any quarterback.

Mendoza is any quarterback. He has done some NFL-flavored stuff. But it is positively ludicrous to offer him up as a Jets or Browns savior in any serious way. There is zero evidence to suggest that he’s a prospect of that caliber, even if we grade on the “quarterbacks are drafted too high” curve.

There is, however, a void atop the quarterback draft board which was caused by Arch Manning’s general fraudulence, the injuries/inconsistency of Garrett Nussmeier and Drew Allar, and so forth. Mendoza, Moore and others are currently filling that void, based largely on reputation, which is precisely how Manning tried to fill it.

I joked last week:

Folks, if the names of the “franchise quarterbacks” in a draft class change completely before you rake leaves for the first time, it means there are no franchise quarterbacks in the draft class.

That was overly glib. Many of you pointed out that lots of outstanding quarterbacks appeared almost out of nowhere in their final seasons. That’s true. But I was not referring to, say, Jayden Daniels suddenly climbing into the first-round conversation after transferring to LSU. I was talking about a total wash-rinse-repeat changing of the guard atop the draft board.

Daniels wedged himself among known prospects like Caleb Williams, Drake Maye and Bo Nix during the 2023 season, which provided some point of comparison. A mock drafter in October of that year could safely place a quarterback with a track record atop the draft board. There was no need to fish for guys in the middle of the barrel and toss them immediately on a plate with lemon and parsley.

Mendoza has become someone that I bet most Jets fans are at least thinking about right now under almost Orwellian circumstances. Arch Manning was always double plus ungood. You have always preferred Fernando Mendoza. He has always been defeating Oregon.

My working mid-October hypothesis is that the 2026 draft will look a little like the 2023 draft. There is no “franchise quarterback” worthy of the title. There are only Kenny Pickett, Malik Willis or Desmond Ridder-types to grow enamored with. Claiming that the Jets should draft Mendoza is essentially stating that they should try to turn the organization around by selecting someone like Kenny Pickett.

Again, we will know more in three months. And I don’t want to bury Mendoza or any mock drafters. But the best available evidence right now indicates that there’s not enough evidence to anoint Mendoza as anything more than a sturdy B1G quarterback. The rest is false certainty. And false certainty is what makes teams like the Jets and the Browns teams like the Jets and the Browns.