Midseason Mumblings

These are not midseason report cards, though I hand out a few awards. They aren’t trade-deadline wrap-ups, though a few trades are wrapped up. They are just midseason thoughts, stat breakdowns and projections on all 32 teams at the midpoint of the NFL season. Enjoy!

NFC East

Dallas Cowboys

Troy Aikman bursting into laughter at the sight of the Cowboys defense will never not be funny:

The problem with loading a defense with failed prospects from other teams like Kaiir Elam, Kenneth Murray and Solomon Thomas is that you end up with a defense loaded with failed prospects from other teams.

Trade-deadline acquisition Quinnen Williams will cauterize the wound in the middle of the Cowboys defense; he’s an incalcuable upgrade over guys like Thomas and Mazi Smith in the middle. The price (a 2026 second-rounder and a 2027 first-rounder) is perilous for a team trying to salvage its dignity, not contend for a Super Bowl. But of course the Cowboys got some extra picks in the Micah Parsons trade. They are like gamblers in a casino losing a little bit of money at a time while getting so lit that they think they’re ahead.

Fellow newcomer Logan Wilson arrives from the only defense on earth worse than the Cowboys. Wilson should take snaps away from Murray and/or Shemar James. That’s also an upgrade.

Trevon Diggs’ return could also help, but Diggs is currently in Super Secret Concussion Protocol/Jerrah’s doghouse/the NBA YoungBoy fan club.

It would be easier to get excited about the Cowboys defense improving from “hilarious” to “below average” if their offense hadn’t been showing major cracks for two weeks.

New York Giants

Tyler Henry of Giants Wire wrote after Sunday’s loss to the 49ers:

Rookie quarterback Jaxson Dart has certainly transformed the culture and atmosphere surrounding the team, instilling real hope in fans for the foreseeable future of the Giants. However, entering Week 9 of the 2025 NFL season with a 2-6 record and the playoffs remaining a distant pipe dream, it is hardly surprising that an exorbitant number of San Francisco 49ers fans were in attendance.

Forgive me, but the Giants have lost three straight games and also lost to the Saints with Dart at quarterback. Brian Daboll throws regular Yosemite Sam tantrums on the sideline. I’m incapable of discerning how Dart “certainly transformed the culture and atmosphere” surrounding the Giants. Henry writing about the fact that MetLife Stadium was full of 49ers fans also undermines the “atmosphere” sentiment.

Dart throws swing passes and runs spine-first into defenders. He has mastered the art of the late drive to make the stats look better. He’s tough, and he’s getting no support from a depleted playmaker corps, so there’s no reason to slam him. But the magical intangible pixie dust piling up around Dart is getting deep enough to close schools.

The Giants got the ball in scoring position after a fumbleception by Abdul Carter (he caught a Mac Jones strip-sack while it was still in flight) just before halftime. They ran a draw play for no gain on first down. Tyrone Tracy dropped a short second-down pass; Dart’s throw was behind him. Dart fired an incompletion into heavy coverage on third down. Then Graham Gano missed a field goal. The 49ers retained a 17-7 lead. If you are going to sell me on a transformed culture/atmosphere, please give me some yards or points in that scenario. You can keep the meaningless touchdown with 1:21 to play.

I don’t mean to rip Henry. He and others on the Giants beat are building a Dart is too pure for this team narrative. Fair enough: Dart has potential; Daboll and most of the others do not. The trouble is that young quarterbacks who live by the New York mythmaking usually die by the New York mythmaking.

Dart, by the way, is tied for the lead among all quarterbacks with 20 designed runs, not counting sneaks. Dart should not be running by design as often as Justin Fields, who is more elusive and aware that he is not a linebacker.

Philadelphia Eagles

Howie Roseman was busier than usual before the trade deadline.

Edge rusher Jaelan Phillips was the right player at the right price. Phillips led the Dolphins in pressures through nine games. He’s a nuttin’-fancy edge rusher who is productive when healthy. He was still playing hard as of last Thursday night’s Dolphins debacle against the Ravens. Phillips cost the Eagles one of their two third-round picks in 2026: not a high price for an instant upgrade at an injury/retirement-depleted position.

Michael Carter looked like a rising slot star in 2023 but regressed to the point where he spent most of the last few weeks on the Jets bench. Little-tough-guy slot defenders often rise and fall based on the defense surrounding him, so Carter is at least a plausible candidate for a change-of-scenery bounce.

Jaire Alexander, on the other hand, just hops from team to team accumulating and burning sick days at this point in his career. Alexander played terribly in the Ravens loss to the Bills, got hurt for a while, ran around a little bit in Week 5 against the Texans, then spent two weeks inactive for non-injury reasons. The best that can be said about Alexander is that when it comes to experienced lukewarm bodies at cornerback, quantity has a quality all its own.

The Eagles now have three high-profile “Jalens” on the roster and two “Carters” on the defense. At least the Jets broke up the Q. Williams brothers.

Washington Commanders

What an absolute, unmitigated disaster this season has become.

The Terry McLaurin contract looks like a huge mistake, though it’s one most teams (and analysts) would make. The all-in acquisitions of creaky veterans also look like a huge mistake: Laremy Tunsil and Deebo Samuel have been banged up, Marshon Lattimore was toast before getting injured, and Von Miller is just sorta there.

Entering the season with the NFL’s oldest roster? Another huge mistake: Austin Ekeler, Bobby Wagner and Zach Ertz won’t be part of any solutions moving forward, nor will any of the guys at the end of the previous paragraph.

And now Jayden Daniels has an elbow injury to go with his October hamstring injury and September knee injury. It’s as if the Commanders are trying to tenderize him evenly, like a chicken cutlet.

The quarterback of the future … injured? In a home game against the Seahawks? In a situation where the coaching staff/organization got a little too cavalier about his long-term health? History does not repeat itself, but it certainly rhymes. This year’s Robert Griffin III callbacks should send shivers down every spine in the organization.

NFC North

Chicago Bears

The Bears offense now ranks 8th in rushing DVOA. The Bears have averaged 186.5 rushing yards per game and 5.9 yards per rush over the last four games. Yes, they faced the Bengals and Saints in two of those games. But getting rookie Kyle Monangai more touches in relief of D’Andre Swift has made a difference. New left tackle Theo Benedet may be more of a battering ram in the running game than Braxton Jones was. And Ben Johnson’s system may simply be coalescing, which can only help the still-streaky Caleb Williams.

The Bears defense leads the NFL in interceptions (13), takeaways (19) and turnover differential (+13). Geno Smith and Spencer Rattler were intercepted three times by the Bears, Joe Flacco twice (one an end-of-game heave), Dak Prescott twice after the game was out of hand, and Joe Milton once. Decide for yourself how sustainable the Bears turnover differential will be moving forward.

Detroit Lions

Hello this is Brad Holmes …

So, you fellas are staying put? Are you sure? There were some moderately-priced edge rushers on the market to complement Too Deep Zone Defensive Player of the Midseason Aidan Hutchinson. No interest at all?

It’s just that now you have a bunch of injuries on your offensive line, with Penei Sewell and Taylor Decker now likely to miss time and Christian Mahogany gone. You can’t replace linemen like these at the trade deadline. But you could beef up your pass rush to help compensate. No?

Hey, we get it. You have a culture, a long-range plan, all that stuff. But the Vikings weren’t really a threat to you in the past, even when they were very good. You appear to be going in the wrong direction. An 11-6 season and a loss in the second round of the playoffs will look like a failure. Sitting on your hands for months is starting to look a little ridiculous. Hello? Hello?

I can’t come to the phone during the trade deadline. Or the free agency period. Or the draft. Please leave your name, number and a brief message. I will forward them to Ben Johnson and Aaron Glenn.

Green Bay Packers

Matt LaFleur, on the Packers offense after Sunday’s loss to the Panthers:

We deservingly got our asses beat. We obviously had a fumble on the first drive. We had three possessions in the first half: a nine-play drive, a nine-play drive and a 10-play, and we had six points. So, it’s going to be tough if we can’t figure shit out and score in the red area; it’s just going to be tough to win football games like that. – Quote via Lior Lampert, Lombardi Ave.

What do you mean “we,” buddy? Figuring shit out on the Packers offense is your job, not mine.

If fixing the Packers’ red-zone offense were my job, however, I would offer some suggestions:

• No more receiver screens in the red zone to Savion Williams, a guy who rarely touches the ball on offense.
• No more swing passes to backup running back Emanuel Wilson for a loss of five on third-and-3.
• No more quick screens to Matthew Golden on third-and-11.
• You know what? No more f*****g cutie-pie swing or screen passes at or near the red zone. Ever.
• Consider kicking a field goal on fourth-and-8 while trailing by seven with 11 minutes left in the fourth quarter instead of sending Jordan Love on a journey of self-discovery. It’s not a basketball game with one minute left. All tactical decisions don’t have to be framed in terms of “possessions.”
• Feed Josh Jacobs the rock.
• Just try to be normal on offense once in a damn while, particularly near the goal line.

Unfortunately, offensive normalcy is likely to fly out the window with Tucker Kraft (ACL) gone. The Packers defense must try to help the team win more games by 16-13 final scores than they lose.

Minnesota Vikings

A factoid curated from Vikings blogger Janik Eckhardt on Bluesky: Kevin O’Connell is 33-12 with his starting quarterback available, be it Kirk Cousins, Sam Darnold or J.J. McCarthy. He’s 5-9 when relying on Carson Wentz, Josh Dobbs, Nick Mullens or Jaren Hall.

Impressive! Though if we are counting Darnold as a starter, not as a season-long backup, it makes you wonder why KOC didn’t pound the table to keep him.

All of the starting offensive linemen except center Ryan Kelly were back for the Week 9 upset of the Lions. Left tackle Christian Darrisaw, left guard Donovan Jackson and right tackle Brian O’Neill were rarely on the field together in the first half of the season. McCarthy also didn’t have Jordan Addison at his disposal in his first two starts. So this is the childproofed nursery the Vikings have spent two years building for McCarthy. It looked sturdy against the Lions. Let’s see if it can keep him hearty and happy two weeks in a row.

NFC South

Atlanta Falcons

Michael Penix’s bad throw percentage, per Pro Football Reference, is 20.9%. Only Russell Wilson has a worse figure among quarterbacks of relevance. Penix’s on-target percentage of 61.8% is the fifth-worst in the NFL.

Penix offers little as a scrambler or runner. The Falcons offense looks like an oversimplified assortment of quick-hitting plays from the pistol, though it looked even simpler and soggier with Kirk Cousins under center.

And then there’s the reason Penix committed an intentional grounding foul late in the fourth quarter of the Week 9 loss to the Patriots. Penix threw the ball away because the snap arrived too soon. And why did the snap arrive too soon?

“Supposedly they were clapping,” Penix said after the game. “For us, whenever I’m clapping, that means I want the ball. I knew [Ryan Neuzil] said he heard them clapping, and he thought it was my clap, and he snapped the ball.”

But as Bernd Buchmasser of Pats Pulpit reported, it did not look like any Patriots defenders clapped before the snap. In fact, the Patriots defenders weren’t even shifting around or doing any of the other things a team might do to rattle a quarterback or center. Sam Darnold used to see ghosts against the Patriots. Now Penix hears phantom claps.

In summary, the Falcons will be fine as long as no one in the stadium makes any noises that startle or confuse their offense.

Carolina Panthers

The Panthers have allowed just 15 touchdowns on 29 opponents’ trips to the red zone, the fifth-best percentage (51.7%) in the NFL.

The Panthers defense forced the Packers to settle for a field goal, a fumble and a turnover-on-downs on three of their four red zone trips in Week 9. The Cowboys settled for 23 and 28-yard field goals in their 30-27 Week 6 loss to the Panthers. The Jets settled for a short field goal and had a pass intercepted in the end zone (though not from inside the 20) in their 13-6 Week 7 loss.

The bad news here is that the Panthers’ overall defense is not nearly as good as their red zone defense, making the team’s ability to keep opponents out of the end zone potentially unsustainable.

The good news is that we are talking about real Panthers strengths and weaknesses instead of joking about how the whole franchise should be torn down and sold for scrap, which is the usual Panthers topic of conversation at midseason.

New Orleans Saints

The Saints offense went three-and-out against the Rams in Tyler Shough’s first three possessions as a starter. Taysom Hill replaced Shough for some Wildcat tomfoolery on the fourth series, though Shough returned to complete a third-down pass and set up a field goal.

Shough led a touchdown drive before halftime, though he was helped along by a roughing penalty where he froze motionless while Byron Young came at him like a frieght train. By the time Shough got the ball again in the third quarter, the Rams led 27-10. Kellen Moore then called some handoffs. Alvin Kamara fumbled.

“Certainly there were some positives in there,” Moore said after the game. That’s Coachspeak for “At least he tried.”

The Saints have the NFL’s easiest future schedule according to DVOA. They face the Falcons twice, the Jets, the Dolphins and the Titans. Shough and Moore should be able to find a few wins on that slate. If not, complaints about salary cap issues and rhetoric about progress will only go so far.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Welcome to the cozy rut between the true NFC contenders and the NFC South schedule fodder. The Bucs are entering a rocky swatch of schedule (Patriots, at Bills, at Rams) before things soften considerably in December.

The Buccaneers offense has been almost as injury-plagued as the 49ers offense this season, but with much less national hand-wringing. Todd Bowles made semi-soothing sounds before the bye about the health statuses of Chris Godwin, Bucky Irving, and Luke Goedeke, though he sounded a little like a husband assuring his wife that he’ll clean the gutters “when he has some free time.” (The 21-day window on Goedeke opened on Monday.) It doesn’t sound like any of them will be back for Week 10. Mike Evans could conceivably return for December. Cody Mauch is out for the year.

The smart play for the Buccaneers would be to not rush anyone back, absorb some AFC losses that won’t impact playoff tiebreakers much, and make sure the roster is healthy enough to clobber the Panthers and Dolphins around the holidays.

Considering the eerie silence around the Irving injury and the age and health histories of the wide receivers, that may also be their only play.

NFC West

Arizona Cardinals

Insider reports that Kyler Murray has not been benched raised a lot of questions which were explicitly addressed by those insider reports. Jonathan Gannon reasserted after another sturdy Jacoby Brissett performance in the Monday night victory over the Cowboys that Murray is the Cardinals starter when healthy. But in a world of processed foods, rampant pollution and mind worms, who among us can claim to really be “healthy?”

(The Cardinals and Murray apparently found a doctor who determined that he needs additional recovery time. It’s amazing what a team and a quarterback working toward the same goal can accomplish.)

Meanwhile, Marvin Harrison Sr. and Marvin Harrison Jr. are arguing over how much Junior should be getting the ball. With the Harrison capofamiglia involved, maybe we REALLY need to check on Murray. Brissett got the wayward son receiver the ball seven times for 96 yards and a touchdown against the Cowboys. Brissett is a survivor, folks.

The Cardinals’ next five opponents have a combined 29-12 record. Don’t put too much stock in the fact that they stumbled out of their bye and whomped Jerrah’s defenseless sideshow. The vibes remain … less than great.

Los Angeles Rams

The Rams won their last three games by a combined score of 86-20. It seems like more people should be talking about them. But the Rams faced the pre-rebirth Ravens, then the Jaguars in London, then had a week off, then walloped the Saints in a game few people watched or cared about. It’s hard to get much fan attention with such a choppy schedule, especially for an established team with no newcomers for early adopters to wax poetic about.

The only real issue for the Rams is their kicking game, but that’s a big issue. Joshua Karty missed a 39-yard field goal and an extra point against the Saints. His misses/blocks directly impacted the losses to the Eagles and 49ers. Karty also regularly just kicks off into the end zone, giving the opponent the ball at the 35-yard line. Most teams are at least trying to force opponents to return kickoffs that reach the landing zone.

Sean McVay talked at broad, rambling length about his kicker issues after the Saints game. To summarize: it doesn’t sound like he thinks kicker shopping or snapper swapping is the answer, so he wants the problem to solve itself through hard work, diligent practice and organizational finger-crossing.

McVay and Kyle Shanahan really are two peas in a pod.

San Francisco 49ers

From fantasy expert Denny Carter on Sunday night:

Christian McCaffrey leads the NFL in carries but averages just 3.5 yards per rush, 45th in the league. His 1.1 yards per carry after contact, per Pro Football Reference, ranks 44th in the NFL. CMC also looks less quick and elusive than he did in years past.

Some of McCaffrey’s discouraging metrics are the result of punchpress duty as the 49ers’ only healthy veteran playmaker on offense for much of the year. CMC has rushed 37 times for 86 yards (2.3 yards per rush) in fourth quarters, usually slamming into stacked boxes as the 49ers milked the clock. He has rushed 18 times for 33 yards (1.8 yards per carry) inside the 10-yard line, where Kyle Shanahan’s only other option for chunks of this season was to have Mac Jones throw to someone like Jake Tonges. Other featured backs also have their metrics nerfed by late-game and goalline carries, but other featured backs aren’t asked to carry the offense quite like CMC.

McCaffrey also remains very valuable as a receiver. He has caught 19 passes for 271 yards in fourth quarters, so he’s not really getting worn out at the ends of games.

McCaffrey may indeed have lost a step, but the 49ers schedule suddenly gets softer after they host the Rams next Sunday. Brian Robinson is a burly back who has played well lately. Shanahan should ease back on CMC’s workload against opponents like the Browns and Titans so he has as much as possible left in the tank come January.

Seattle Seahawks

Rashid Shaheed was a shrewd addition. Shaheed is a one-dimensional straight-line burner. The Seahawks offense only needs one extra dimension right now. This deal was the best of the deadline.

Jaxson Smith-Njigba is the Too Deep Zone Midseason Offensive Player of the Year. He’s averaging an NFL-high 118.5 receiving yards per game and 12.0 yards per target. But he clinched the award on Sunday night because of his impact on the Commanders defense. Watch Tory Horton’s early-game touchdown: two defenders double-cover JSN, leaving Mike Sainstril all along against Horton. Now watch Horton’s second touchdown: two underneath defenders and the deep safety are hovering around JSN. Yet the Commanders could not really stop JSN, either.

Mike Macdonald has overtaken Shane Steichen for Too Deep Zone Midseason Coach of the Year. The Seahawks haven’t had anything resembling a “down” game all season.

John Schneider is the Too Deep Zone Executive of the Midseason. He made all the right offseason moves. The Seahawks roster is deep. They’ve overcome injuries. They are outstanding on special teams. This is a much better team on the field than it looked like – or even still looks like – on paper.

Oh heck, Klint Kubiak earns Coordinator of the Midseason. Cowboys offensive coordinator Klayton Adams had it nearly sewn up entering Monday night. Then Dak Prescott started taking fourth-down sacks and heaving gopher balls.

AFC East

Buffalo Bills

Josh Allen is the Too Deep Zone Midseason Most Valuable Player. Controversial!

The Bills are having the most Bills season that they have ever Bills seasoned. All the plot points have been rehashed from 2022-24. Questions about the WR1. Injuries up the middle of the defense. A victory over the Chiefs. Some random upsets. It’s all so familiar that it discourages deep analysis.

Being so awesome that anything which happens before mid-January can only bring sorrow and anxiety, never joy, is a mixed blessing.

Miami Dolphins

Chris Grier was unceremoniously fired after a quarter-century with the organization after the Dolphins spent last Thursday night quivering in the corner of their own stadium like a litter of kittens behind the dryers in a laundromat. Grier needed to go, but it’s still shocking to see so long-tenured a senior-level manager stuffed down the garbage disposal on a Friday morning, as if he were a rookie free agent who fumbled a kickoff or something.

Firing the general manager five days before the trading deadline is a little like burning the longboats to prevent retreat, except far stupider. Stephen Ross brokered the Jaelan Phillips trade without incident – grandpa can be trusted to watch the yard sale for a few hours – but we will never know if other opportunities to trade salary for draft picks were left on the table.

As for the other culprits for the Dolphins’ dismal season: it’s almost as if Ross is punishing Mike McDaniel by not firing him at this point. McDaniel, in turn, is punishing Tua Tagovailoa by not benching him. And Ross is punishing himself and fans by prolonging the agony. Everyone is trying to rub everyone else’s nose in the colossal doo-doo pile that everyone helped to create.

New England Patriots

Drake Maye is the Too Deep Zone Breakout Player of the Midseason.

What, you were expecting Rico Dowdle?

Maye’s statistical profile is about 30% schedule-assisted helium. His reputation is about 75% the premeditated hype and herd mentality which passes for analysis in too many media circles. But he’s still playing well. And I feel like I must now save my energy for J.J. McCarthy magical winnersauce unicorn debates.

The Patriots now rank 14th in DVOA, 12th in weighted DVOA. That equates to the sixth or seventh playoff seed. Those rankings sound correct to me. I’M NOT THE WEIRDO HERE.

New York Jets

The summer Sauce Gardner and Garrett Wilson contract extensions were the best moves the Jets had made in years. Finally, they were committing to their best young players, rather than continuing the endless cycle of finding fault with their young stars after about three years and shipping them away in a fit of toxic incompetence …

(Face palms)

AFC North

Baltimore Ravens

Blah blah blah, everyone is healthy, things are back to normal, easy schedule, make a run, blah blah blah. You know that whole deal.

Dre’Mont Jones recorded two sacks for the Titans against the Chargers, who were down to their eighth-string tackles by the fourth quarter. Presto! Free trip to a quasi-contender. The Ravens like big, thumpy edge rushers, so Jones is a fine fit.

Lamar Jackson’s yards per attempt (11.1), completion rate (72.9%), touchdown rate (11.9%) and passer rating (136.7) are all currently career highs. His sack rate (12.59%) is also a career high. All of these rates will likely simmer down a bit due to central tendency in the weeks ahead. But the Ravens’ slow start concealed just how well Jackson was playing when healthy.

Cincinnati Bengals

Logan Wilson is gone. Trey Hendrickson is still around, at least until the end of the year. The Bengals defense is historically bad. Joe Flacco was at his best in small doses even at his peak.

This season is lost, so perhaps the Bengals should try to extend Hendrickson? Players of Hendrickson’s caliber were fetching multiple high draft picks on the market; the Bengals might at least have gotten a first-rounder on a trade-and-sign deal. If Hendrickson signs elsewhere in 2026, the Bengals will be forced to start over completely on defense. Offensive players are already impatient and miffed. Imagine how they will feel next year.

Cleveland Browns

The Browns structured their 2025 season in a dramatic V-shape that fiction writers sometimes call Freytag’s Pyramid. All of the tension, suspense and hilarity are supposed to rise until Shedeur Sanders appears on the field in a clamorous tragicomic crescendo. Then: Ragnarök, Götterdämmerung, hubris, bathos, credits.

Kevin Stefanski has forestalled the inevitable Shedeur climax like a showrunner padding out the episode count of a Netflix series. You can’t blame him: it will instakill his Browns career and force him to start over someplace almost as bad. But Dillon Gabriel and his troupe of rookie unknowns are starting to look like a middle school production of Dear Evan Hansen: amateurish and awkward in uncomfortable ways.

It’s time for Stefanski to accept his fate and the Browns organization to sleep in the bed it made. C’mon, let’s get this over with already.

Pittsburgh Steelers

The Steelers have run 37 passing plays with three tight ends on the field, by far the most in the NFL.

The Steelers have run 18 passing plays with a sixth offensive lineman on the field, also the most in the NFL. Aaron Rodgers is 16-of-18 for 138 yards on these plays, with five completions to Kenneth Gainwell (for 10 yards), four to DK Metcalf (36 yards), and one to sixth lineman Spencer Anderson for four yards.

The Steelers’ passing stats from a six-lineman personnel grouping cannot be compared to those of other teams, who only use such tactics at the goal line and are therefore often 1-of-2 for one yard and a touchdown or something.

The Steelers have not attempted a pass with three tight ends AND a sixth lineman on the field, but give Arthur Smith time. They do have a one-yard touchdown run from that personnel grouping.

The Steelers are second to the Bears with a +9 turnover differential. They have incurred just 15 sacks for 97 yards with motionless Count Dooku at quarterback. They don’t need to open up their offense. Harm reduction is their optimization. Turtle up, avoid mistakes, split with the Ravens, walk away with the division, get clobbered in the playoffs, declare the season a success.

AFC South

Houston Texans

Opponents are completing just 56.7% of passes for 5.1 yards per attempt against the Texans defense. Both figures are the lowest in the NFL. The Texans defense is just as good as advertised.

Davis Mills may start against the Jaguars in place of C.J. Stroud (concussion) next week. The Texans were 5-19-1 with Mills starting in 2021 and 2022. Mills was also ineffective in three long relief appearances over the last three years, including Sunday’s effort against the Broncos. Mills cannot beat the Jaguars, though the Jaguars remain capable of beating themselves whenever the mood strikes them.

Even with Stroud healthy, the Texans lack the consistency on offense to pose a serious threat to the Bills in Week 12 or Chiefs in Week 14. Their slim playoff hopes may lie with a sweep of the Colts, a Week 17 win over the Chargers and some taking-care-of-business victories over the Raiders and Titans.

Outstanding defenses can only sustain success for so long. If the Texans end up waiting until next year to build an offense around Stroud that can hold up its end of the bargain, they may be in for a rude surprise.

Indianapolis Colts

“Daniel Jones committed five turnovers and was sacked five times,” asked JJ Stankevitz, rhetorically, in a header to his column about Sunday’s loss to the Steelers on the Colts website. “What happened?”

Golly, I spent two months waving a Wendy’s Baconator in the face of a tiger, and now my hand has been bitten off. What happened?

Sauce Gardner is everything a team can ask for in a cornerback: size, speed, technique, attitude. He would not have been on the market if the Jets weren’t sweating dysfunctionality from their pores. Sauce will benefit from a change of scenery.

The Colts face the second-toughest future schedule, per DVOA. Sauce will be a much-needed Nico Collins/Rashee Rice eraser down the stretch. Yes, the price (two first round picks, receiver Adonai Mitchell) is very steep. This is the first chance the Colts have had to go “all in” for over a decade. Their fans could use the sort of deep playoff run Bills or Lions fans might find disappointing. They might as well shoot their shot.

Jacksonville Jaguars

Travis Hunter is on IR because the Jaguars ignored the user’s manual that has come with every player to enter the NFL in the last 75 years. Yes, I was excited about the Hunter two-way experiment, even though an increased risk of wear-and-tear injuries was always part of the equation. I suppose I expected to see the Jaguars do something fun and exciting with Hunter before he suffered some sort of wear-and-tear injury. That never really happened.

Newcomer Jakobi Meyers is a possession receiver who ran mostly curls and out-routes for the Raiders this year. He has sure hands and a with-the-program reputation, two attributes which certainly won’t hurt the Jaguars. His career stats, accumulated for mostly terrible offenses with no one else to throw to, make him look like more a high-impact player than he really is.

The Jaguars defense is second in the NFL with 11 interceptions but last in the NFL with 10 sacks. The low sack total almost certainly has greater predictive value than the high interception total.

The Jaguars committed nine penalties for 80 yards against the Raiders in Week 9. Those are actually low figures for them. They committed four offensive motion penalties before halftime but none afterward. Progress?

The Jaguars also only committed one goal-to-go turnover and settled for just one red-zone field goal against the Raiders, both fine figures by their standards. They beat one of the drippiest teams in the NFL, and all it took was a 68-yard field goal, a batted-down two-point conversion at the end of overtime and a bunch of goal-line touchdowns where they finally punched it in on the fourth try.

I cannot decide if the Jaguars are the best terrible team or the worst great team I have ever seen. They will reach the playoffs by catching the Texans without C.J. Stroud next week, sweeping the Titans and beating opponents like the Cardinals the way they beat the Raiders.

The only reason I cannot bring myself to call the Jaguars “frauds” is because no one calls a toddler’s drawing of a $20 bill in green crayon a “counterfeit.”

Tennessee Titans

Cam Ward has not executed a single designed running play this season, not counting short yardage sneaks, at least according to the databases I use.

The following quarterbacks have attempted at least one draw, bootleg or zone-read this season: Joe Flacco, Sam Darnold, Jake Browning, Dillon Gabriel, Russell Wilson. It sure seems like letting Ward use his legs now and then might help him open up some other opportunities.

Ward has been pressured on 139 dropbacks. Only Justin Herbert has endured more total pressures. Ward has been sacked a league-high 38 times. Due in large part to his high sack rate, Ward’s adjusted net yards per attempt when pressured is 0.7. Only Russell Wilson and Jake Browning have worse figures.

I’ve seen some reports from the tape-grinding experts that Ward is playing well, actually. I am not sure what curve such experts are grading on. Ward looked to me like he was regressing when he threw for just 112 yards in a winnable game against the Chargers. I want Ward to succeed. But rookie quarterbacks in his predicament tend to develop bad habits.

AFC West

Denver Broncos

The Broncos only outscore opponents 44-37 in first quarters and 106-93 in first halves. Those margins are inflated by the Cowboys game, which the Broncos led 27-10 at halftime. The Broncos then outscore opponents 96-36 in fourth quarters. This is not a sustainable model for success against playoff-caliber foes.

Bo Nix’s efficiency ratings by quarter:

First Quarter: 89.3

Second Quarter: 99.3

Third Quarter: 63.8

Fourth Quarter: 108.2

Nix has also only run 12 times for 49 yards in first halves but 27 times for 122 yards in second halves.

The Broncos defense has recorded 40 sacks for 242 yards, while the offense has allowed just nine sacks for 52 yards. This 190-yard net differential goes a long way toward explaining their 7-2 record.

Kansas City Chiefs

The Chiefs have converted 16 fourth downs, the highest figure in the NFL. Their 80% success rate on fourth-down conversion ranks fourth in the league.

The Chiefs defense, meanwhile, has allowed just four fourth-down conversions on 17 attempts, the lowest percentage (23.5%) in the NFL.

Successful teams often force opponents to attempt fourth-and-forever conversions late in games (while rarely being forced to do so themselves), so it’s natural to expect a split in these rates. Still, two games stood out when I teased this data a bit:

• The Lions went 0-for-2 on fourth down conversions in their loss to the Chiefs, not counting the trick play nullified by a touchdown in the first quarter. (They settled for a field goal.) The Chiefs, meanwhile, went 2-of-3 with an early-game fourth-down touchdown.
• The Chiefs went 4-for-4 on fourth downs against the Ravens, with several early-game drive-sustaining successes. The Ravens went 1-for-4. Some of the Ravens’ attempts occured when the game was out of hand, but an early fourth-and-1 failure helped the game snowball in the Chiefs’ favor.

The Chiefs are the Chiefs, making it hard to doubt the sustainability of even their most outlandish-looking splits. But if you are looking for evidence that they are closer to their record than their reputation, the fourth-down conversion splits are enlightening. Those convincing Ravens and Lions wins are their “still the Chiefs” calling card. If those wins hinged on just a few plays that went the Chiefs’ way, maybe they are more ordinary than we are inclined to think.

Las Vegas Raiders

Remember the preseason, when fantasy sharps and early adopters were gushing over rookie Dont’e Thornton as if he were the second coming of Puka Nacua crossed with a clone of Randy Moss? Remember when Thornton caught three passes of 20-plus yards in the first three Raiders games, suggesting that there was indeed something to the hype?

Well, Thornton’s playing time began to diminish sharply after a dropped pass against the Bears. He was a healthy scratch against the Jaguars in Week 9.

“I wanted to see what Tyler (Lockett) would do,” Pete Carroll said after the game. Lockett, a 33-year old cut earlier in the season by one of the few teams with a worse record than the Raiders, was targeted once for zero yards.

This is what it looks like when an old coach starts taking care of his binkies/cronies instead of doing what’s best for the long-term health of the organization. It often ends poorly and swiftly.

Los Angeles Chargers

You probably heard that Joe Alt suffered another ankle injury on Sunday and is now out for the year. You may not have heard that right tackle Bobby Hart suffered groin and ankle injuries on Sunday and is likely to be out a while.

Trey Pipkins replaced Alt, while Jamaree Salyer replaced Hart, and the Chargers went back to lining up with two tight ends and a fullback to hide their offensive tackles whenever possible. When the Chargers attempted to use normal personnel and alignments in the second half, Justin Herbert usually either scrambled or took a sack.

Deadline acquisition Trevor Penning never developed into the tone-setting mauler at tackle the Saints hoped he would be. But Penning has starting experience at both tackle positions, as well as guard. Some combination of Penning and Pipkins at the tackle spots will at least not translate into auto-pressure for the defense.

Chargers-Steelers will be the most Heavy Personnel pro football game since 1956 next Sunday night. But the Steelers were born into this darkness.

There are enough Raiders and self-destructive opponents (Jaguars, Cowboys) on the upcoming Chargers schedule to get them to 10 wins. If they can beat the Steelers and Jaguars, ten wins and a sweet tiebreaker portfolio should be enough lock up a playoff slot. It would all be much easier to envision with Alt at left tackle.