A Packers Packerfesto

Starters are better than their backups.

That’s such an obvious truth that it’s practically a tautology. Yet sports fans love to debate it. The backup quarterback is the most popular guy in town for a reason. Backup running backs also hold a special place in the hearts of fantasy speculators. But when cornered, or when asked to talk about some other team’s backups, most of us would not argue with the suggestion that the best players on any team are the starters, and that the backups are not as good.

There are exceptions. Starters get old, injured and/or complacent but maintain their coaches’ trust for a while. Backups, especially if they are top prospects, develop quickly. It’s likely that a 2026 first-round pick is better than the journeyman who is currently in front of him on the depth chart.

These exceptions become rarer, however, as time passes. Backups who are better than starters rapidly become starters. If they don’t rapidly become starters, whatever their draft pedigree, it means that they are not as good as the players they aren’t able to supplant.

This brings us to the Green Bay Packers, a perennial playoff team that has replaced many of its starters with their backups, and will therefore decline in 2026.

I have been snarking it up and trolling Cheeseheads for weeks, placing wagers with Packers media members and taking potshots at the team’s myriad departures and dubious decisions in the draft performance assessments and free agency progress reports. But I have never written a detailed, cogent argument about why the Packers are having such a bad offseason, something I could point to instead of debating with Packers fans and reporters one at a time. So here it is.

Let’s Begin at Left Tackle

The Packers drafted offensive lineman Jordan Morgan 25th overall in 2024. It was assumed at the time that Morgan would be the heir to David Bakhtiari. But Rasheed Walker, a seventh-round pick who played well in relief of Bakhtiari in 2023, held Morgan off for the left tackle job. Morgan played sparingly as a rookie, mostly at guard, and was hampered by shoulder injuries.

Morgan and Walker competed for the left tackle spot in 2025 OTAs. Walker was sidelined for a while with a groin injury in training camp. But when Walker got healthy, Morgan immediately slid back to guard. It doesn’t sound like much of a competition.

Morgan started the 2025 season on the bench but soon entered the lineup as a super-sub due to Zach Tom and Aaron Banks injuries. He played well down the stretch at right tackle. He started at left tackle in Week 18, when Walker and many other Packers starters were resting for the playoffs. Morgan played well at right tackle in the playoff loss to the Bears.

Walker signed with the Panthers as a free agent. Morgan is slated to replace him, with no serious challenger for the role. Every scrap of evidence indicates that this is a downgrade. Despite his high draft status, Morgan never really challenged Walker. Had Tom been healthy late in the year, Morgan would have been on the bench, or perhaps at right guard in place of Anthony Belton. Morgan did not earn the left tackle job; he inherited it because the Packers chose not to pay Walker.

If this were an isolated incident, it would represent a slight downgrade with mild-to-moderate risk. But promoting players into starting jobs they failed to earn has become the Packers’ 2026 organizational policy.

We’ll return to the Packers offensive line in a moment.

Let’s switch over to edge rusher

The Packers drafted Lukas Van Ness 13th overall in 2023. He has started two games and recorded 8.5 sacks in three years. If the Vikings, Lions or Bears drafted an edge rusher 13th overall, and that defender notched just 8.5 sacks in three years, Cheeseheads would call him a “bust” and troll rival fans about him.

Micah Parsons led the Packers in every sack-related category in 2025, of course. Rashan Gary finished second with 7.5 sacks and 48 pressures. Kingsley Enagbare, a fourth-year role player, finished third with 23 pressures. Van Ness recorded 17 pressures. Gary and Enagbare started the playoff loss to the Bears, though Van Ness (47) ended up with more snaps than Gary (42).

Gary has been an inconsistent-motor guy for years. He failed to step up when Parsons was injured, though he did record six pressures (per both Pro Football Focus and Sports Info Solutions) in that playoff loss.

Packers fans said “good riddance” when the team traded Gary to the Cowboys for a fourth-round pick. Enagbare then signed with the Jets. That leaves Van Ness as the starter opposite Parsons.

In other words, the Packers replaced their fading edge rusher with the guy who spent three years failing to not only unseat him but the team’s primary backup as well. Whatever you think of Gary, Van Ness spent three years proving that he is not as good. Heck, the Packers might never have traded for Parsons if Van Ness had developed into the player they hoped he would be!

The Packers used the Gary pick on Penn State edge rusher Dani Dennis-Sutton. We can debate Dennis-Sutton’s merits all you like: if you think a fourth-round edge rusher can supplant Van Ness, then you are making my point for me.

With Parsons’ rehab proceeding at a careful pace, it’s very likely that Van Ness and Dennis-Sutton will be the Packers’ starting edge rushers in the season opener.

Let’s move to the receiver corps

The situation is more nuanced here.

The Packers drafted Matthew Golden 23rd overall in 2025. Golden was a disappointment as a rookie. He caught just 29 passes in the regular season. He started just five games, even though Christian Watson and Jayden Reed missed large chunks of the year, creating opportunities at wide receiver.

Dontayvion Wicks started more games and caught more passes than Golden. It’s not unusual to find games where backup tight end John FitzPatrick played more snaps than Golden. Most of Golden’s snaps and targets came during injuries to one or two of his fellow receivers. Much was written about Golden’s lack of an offensive role throughout the season.

Romeo Doubs led the Packers in receptions and receiving yards in 2025. Wicks started seven games, catching 30 passes. Doubs signed with the Patriots. Wicks was traded to the Eagles.

Let’s check in briefly with the rest of the Packers’ receiving corps:

• Watson missed the first half of last season with an ACL injury he suffered in the 2024 playoffs. He returned to catch 35 passes in ten regular-season starts.
• Reed, a slot specialist, started the season hampered by a foot injury, then missed Weeks 3 through 13 with a collarbone injury. He returned in December and for the playoffs.
• Tight end Tucker Kraft may have been the Packers’ best offensive player before tearing his ACL in Week 9. Kraft is expected back for training camp.

The Packers never had Jordan Love, Watson, Reed, Kraft and Golden on the field at the same time last year. It’s certainly arguable that their offense will get better by getting healthy, with Golden growing into a role in the rotation.

There are problems with this hypothesis, however, starting with the fact that the Packers usually had Love, Doubs, Wicks, Golden and some combination of the others at their disposal last year. The results were generally very good, both because Love is a capable starter and because of the depth at the playmaker positions. The Packers are known for their committee approach at wide receiver. The committee is now smaller. What happens if Watson misses a few games, as he usually does? What happens if Golden, who couldn’t supplant the erratic Wicks last year, cannot replicate Doubs’ production, let alone surpass it?

Let’s look at this another way. What would happen if ALL the Packers primary playmakers had their best season to date in 2026? For Golden, let’s say he matures into Peak Doubs this season:

• Watson: 41-611-7
• Reed: 64-793-8
• Kraft: 50-707-7
• Golden: 55-724-6

Total: 210-2,835-28

Yes, those are everyone’s peak statistical seasons, with Doubs subbing for Golden. Reed inconsistency was a hot topic in 2024: he would disappear from the gameplan every few weeks. Watson’s often dinged up and always a boom-or-bust vertical guy. The Packers haven’t had a 1,000-yard receiver since Davante Adams in 2021. Their receiver corps, while multifacetrd and deep, wasn’t good enough in 2023 and 2024. Which is why they drafted Golden. And why fans were so excited about Golden.

The numbers above aren’t bad by any means. Assuming Golden develops a bit, the Packers receiver corps should be league average or better. But you don’t want to see me play the “peak season” game with teams like the Vikings, Lions, Rams, etc. And the receiving corps is the strongest unit on the Packers roster.

If you are counting, Golden is now the third former first round pick to receive a 2026 promotion he could not earn on merit.

When you cover the entire league for a long time, that’s the sort of trend that gets your antennae up. When it happens to a Super Bowl team, it’s the inevitable result of salary cap attrition, and there’s a legitimate reason why the draft picks didn’t win starting jobs. (They were behind championship-caliber starters!) Even for champions, the promotions usually signal some decline or regression. When it happens to a team that finishes in seventh place each year, it looks like something else is going on.

The whole Elgton Jenkins thing

Let’s circle back to the offensive line.

Elgton Jenkins was one of the Packers’ best linemen for seven years. He was a two-time Pro Bowl left guard. He slid to left or right tackle, and also to center, during injury crises in past seasons and played well.

The Packers signed left guard Aaron Banks in 2025 free agency. They decided to move Jenkins to center. Jenkins never seemed high on the move. He held out of last year’s OTAs, seeking a raise. He reported to mandatory minicamp but did not practice due to what was reported as a back injury. He did report to training camp, without a new contract, and started the season at center. His performance at center was disappointing. He started nine games, fracturing his leg against the Eagles.

Right guard Sean Rhyan moved to center to replace Jenkins. Per universal Packer-fan opinion, Rhyan outperformed Jenkins considerably. Anthony Belton replaced Rhyan at right guard; I’m not sure what Cheeseheads thought of him.

I must note here that Jenkins’ PFF grade for 2025 was 62.0. Rhyan’s was 59.0, at center and guard. Rhyan’s run-blocking grade was a little better than Jenkins’, but Jenkins’ pass blocking grade was 72.5 and Rhyan’s was 38.5.

I am not a big PFF fan. Their charters can sometimes overrate a famous, established player like Jenkins. Local fans, it should be noted, can also be overly harsh about a veteran who pisses and moans all summer like Jenkins, then gets pushed around in an embarrassing loss to the Browns.

Seeking a neutral third party, I turned to Sports Info Solutions. Jenkins’ blown block rate at center in 2025 was 2.4%. Rhyan’s was 2.9% (at center only). A total of 33 players played 500 or more snaps at center in 2025. Jenkins’ blown block rate ranked 20th in the NFL, Rhyan’s ranked 29th.

I could go watch lots and lots of Packers film to make my own observations. One reason why I won’t: Rhyan was the center for the three games where Malik Willis and Clayton Tune saw significant playing time at quarterback. I lack the scouting acumen to account for changes in scheme due to quarterback changes, as well as the time to devote to this mystery, and my objectivity would likely be clouded (or called into question) anyway.

So here’s my hypothesis:

• Jenkins ticked fans off, then played poorly in September.
• Rhyan played extremely well against the Eagles. (This game I remember well!)
• Rhyan became a folk hero as a result, especially since fans were sour on Jenkins.
• Rhyan soon began playing about equally to Jenkins, based on the best available evidence. But fans were more forgiving of Rhyan, especially when the Love and Parsons injuries gave everyone much bigger fish to fry.

Meanwhile, at right guard, Belton was blowing 3.9% of blocks, the third-highest figure in the NFL among players with 400+ snaps at that position. Morgan blew 3.7% of blocks when playing right guard, the sixth-highest figure among 32 players. Belton’s PFF grade, with some snaps at other positions in the mix, was a meager 50.0. He was charged with six pressures in the Wild Card game.

Rhyan and Belton are now unchallenged starters at center and right guard, just as Morgan has been granted the left tackle job. Even giving Rhyan the benefit of the doubt, there’s no evidence that Belton is more than a stopgap starter. Belton, a second-round pick in 2025, is yet another player inheriting a starting role (here’s that word again) by default.

Packers fans like to harp on my Jenkins takes in my mentions. They seem to think I am basing my Jenkins takes on 2023 or that he should have been retained. No, the Packers needed an upgrade at center. Rhyan appears to be a very modest upgrade. Belton looks like a rather weak link. There’s no depth whatsoever behind him. And depth on the offensive line – facilitated by Jenkins’ ability to solve crises at every position – is what has kept the Packers offensive line functional since Bakhtiari started breaking down.

Some Possible Defensive Upgrades, plus Cap Concerns

The Packers replaced Quay Walker with Zaire Franklin at linebacker this offseason.

Walker recorded 128 total tackles in 2024, per Sports Info Solutions. Franklin recorded 127. Walker made 10 tackles for losses on running plays, Franklin seven. Franklin produced 21 pressures on 104 pass rushes (20.2%), Walker 11 on 63 pass rushes (18.0%). Both defenders grade out poorly in pass coverage according to both SIS and PFF, but both are the type of linebacker who rarely leaves the field and draws tough coverage assignments.

SIS charged Walker with nine broken/missed tackles, Franklin with 24. Walker was a first-round pick in 2022; he turns 26 around the time you read this. Franklin turns 30 in July. He was a heart-and-soul guy for the Colts for nearly a decade. The Colts traded Franklin for cap reasons. The Raiders signed Walker for three years at $28 million guaranteed.

Let’s give the Packers some benefit of the doubt by calling Walker-to-Franklin a draw.

The Packers traded Colby Wooden for Franklin, then signed Javon Hargrave.

Wooden was just a guy. Hargrave was a major disrupter and double-digit sack producer in his Steelers/Eagles heyday, which ended in 2022. Hargrave signed with the 49ers in 2023 and started getting hurt, as 49ers do. A torn triceps erased most of 2024. He joined the Vikings and played fairly well between bumps and bruises, with 15 pressures on 282 pass rushes. Jonathan Allen and Jalon Redmond played more snaps than Hargrave, whom Brian Flores clearly wanted to keep fresh. Hargrave is 33 years old.

Woolen-to-Hargrave is the only clear upgrade the Packers made at any position in the roster. Hargrave is essentially a replacement for Kenny Clark, who left in the Parsons trade, though Clark is younger and more durable. Packers fans who were thrilled to get rid of the aging, coasting-on-reputation Gary might not want to get too attached to Hargrave.

The Packers signed Nate Hobbs last offseason to a reported four-year, $49 million contract. Hobbs suffered a training camp knee injury and was in and out of the lineup all year. When he was healthy-ish, the Packers moved the career slot defender to right cornerback to see what would happen. George Pickens happened. Then Ja’Marr Chase happened. Hobbs ended the season as a bit player. He was inactive for the playoff game due to a Week 17 reaggravation of his knee injury.

Hobbs’ replacements on the roster are journeyman Benjamin St-Juste and second-round pick Brandon Cisse. I like both players as third/fourth cornerbacks, and that will probably be their role, unless one of them can outperform Carrington Valentine on the outside. Javon Bullard will remain in the slot, where he’s fine. Keisean Nixon is a solid CB1.

The point here is not that Hobbs is great or that the Packers should have kept him. But the Packers ranked 25th at stopping opponents’ top wide receivers, 29th against WR2s and 22nd against WR3s in 2025. Their cornerback room isn’t all that great! That’s why they signed Hobbs! It’s why they rented Trevon Diggs for the playoffs! It’s why they used their top draft pick on Cisse! Frankly, it’s why they traded for Parsons. They are doing all they can to break even in the secondary.

The Packers are eating $4 million in dead money for Hobbs. They are also eating $17 million each for Gary and Clark and nearly $5 million for Jenkins. If fans thought Hobbs, Gary and Jenkins were dead wood last year, I’ve got some bad news for them: those departed players are now dead weight that kept the Packers from making bolder free agent acquisitions or holding on to some of their own younger free agents.

Some Tiny Downgrades

Emmanuel Wilson rushed for 496 yards in 2025. He went 28-107-2 in a win over the Vikings when Josh Jacobs was unavailable. (Wilson’s other start came in meaningless Week 18.) Wilson was also Jacobs’ primary backup in 2024, rushing for 502 yards.

Wilson signed with the Seahawks. The Packers did not sign or draft a replacement.

Jacobs’ backups in 2026 will be Chris Brooks and MarShawn Lloyd. Brooks rushed for 106 yards last year, 82 of them while backing up Wilson when Jacobs was inactive. Lloyd has six NFL carries but has racked up an impressive array of ankle, groin and hamstring injuries.

Jacobs, it must be pointed out, is an eighth-year, high-mileage power back who dealt with bone bruises and contusions last year, limiting him down the stretch. Counting on him as a workhorse moving forward is risky.

Malik Willis developed into one of the NFL’s best backup quarterbacks over the last two years. We know this because we saw him a lot. Willis led the Packers to two victories in 2024. He nearly led an overtime victory against the Bears in relief of Jordan Love last year, then kept the Packers competitive until the fourth quarter of a loss to the Ravens.

With Willis now starting for the Dolphins, Desmond Ridder is Love’s backup.

After flunking an extended tryout as the Falcons starter in 2023, Ridder signed with the Cardinals, but he was released at the end of 2024 training camp. He signed with the Raiders, where he started one game, a 15-9 loss to the Falcons. The Bengals signed Ridder last July but waived him last August. The Vikings signed Ridder in September, and he bounced on and off their practice squad for a while, unable to crack their quarterback room full of superstars. The Packers signed Ridder in December, basically to back up Clayton Tune in Week 18 when Love and Willis were dinged up.

I hesitate to mention Wilson and Willis because it might elicit some bully-pulpit OMG This asshole is now talking about backup QB/RBs responses. I feel like we’re safe now that I have cruised past the 3,000 word mark. Both Brooks/Lloyd and Ridder are further examples of players getting promotions into key roles that they did not earn on merit.

The Packers currently have three kickers on the roster. They’ve been flailing to replace Mason Crosby for three seasons. They traded two seventh-round picks to move up to draft Florida kicker Trey Smack. Smack is the second sixth-round kicker the Packers have drafted since 2023; Anders Carlson was out of the NFL last year.

Finally, there’s Jeff Hafley, formerly the best Packers defensive coordinator since Dom Capers got flummoxed by the read-option in the early 2010s, now the coach of the Miami Packphins. Jonathan Gannon will replace Hafley. Gannon’s Cardinals defenses finished 32nd, 14th and 21st in DVOA during his three years as their head coach. Hafley’s defenses ranked 7th in 2024 and 19th last year.

Gannon’s 2022 Eagles defense was outstanding, at least until the second half of the Super Bowl, so I won’t classify Hafley-to-Gannon as a significant downgrade. I don’t expect any Packers supporters to seriously argue that they would not take Hafley back in a heartbeat.

In Summary …

Let’s check out the position-by-position tally for the Packers.

• Quarterback: Very slight downgrade (Willis to Ridder).
• Running Back: Slight downgrade.
• Wide Receiver: Moderate downgrade.
• Tight End: Even. We’ll discuss Kraft’s return in a moment.
• Offensive Line: Moderate downgrade.
• Edge: Significant downgrade, including Parsons’ current health status.
• Defensive Tackle: Slight upgrade.
• Linebacker: Even.
• Secondary: Very slight upgrade.
• Special Teams: Even.
• Coaching: Slight downgrade (Hafley to Gannon).

Overall, the Packers roster has declined significantly across most position groups.

Any argument that the Packers improved this offseason, or at least did not backslide considerably, boils down to three points:

• The Packers were 8-3-1 before the Parsons injury and will get better by getting healthier.
• The departures were mostly dead wood.
• The young guys are ready to step up.

I think we’ve covered the last two arguments pretty thoroughly. The Dead Wood and Step Up theories don’t work at this scale. Doubs and the two Walkers were not Dead Wood. Young players who spent 2-3 seasons in backup roles don’t suddenly “Step Up” based on some video game algorithm.

The Healthier Means Better argument starts with Parsons, but it also includes Kraft, Zach Tom and Devonte Wyatt, plus some bit players. It’s an argument with some merit. But it would be much more compelling if:

• Parsons was expected back for training camp, not early October.
• Wyatt, Kraft and Tom were former Pro Bowlers, not merely solid starters/role players.
• The Packers were something like 11-1 at the time of the Parsons injury, rather than a team that kept finding non-victories.
• The Packers didn’t spend three seasons hovering at the same performance level, or
• There was ANY evidence that the team made ANY significant upgrades to ANY position group.

It would be terrible analysis to rip the Packers for losing four straight games down the stretch: they were injury-ravaged, and late-season winning/losing streaks don’t really carry over into the next year. But it would also be bad analysis to pencil in a division title or playoff victories that never happened. The Packers have been a Wild Card team on merit for three years. Now their roster is weaker. Therefore, I predict that they will cede their playoff berth to some team which improved in the offseason.

The Packers traded for Parsons because they were in Win Now mode at the start of 2025. That plan failed. So the team shed some of the last holdovers from the Aaron Rodgers era this offseason. That caused a cap crunch. So the Packers also had to pick and choose among young veterans they wanted to keep. They chose Rhyan and an extension for Reed (plus Kraft and others soon), but that cost them Doubs and the two Walkers. They lack first-round picks for the next two years, so they’re crossing their fingers and hoping to get some ROI from Van Ness and others, plus a big leap from Golden. This is a housecleaning, soft-rebuilding year for the Packers.

Packers fans don’t see it that way, because fans are fans, Gary/Jenkins were so unpopular by the ends of their tenures and the concept of promotion from within sounds so appealing. The Packers have also incurred so many paper cuts that it’s easy to shrug all of them off individually, then lose track of how much total blood was shed. It takes some forensics to see just how many losses the Packers suffered and how much finger-crossing they are doing by saying “next man up” at so many positions.

I will point out here that the early DVOA projections are higher on the Packers than I am. That’s fine. I am not obligated to agree with DVOA projections. The betting lines for the Packers hover around 10 wins and a playoff berth. I plan to wager some unders.

I believe 10-7 is the Packers’ absolute ceiling. Somewhere between 7-10 and 9-8 is more likely: hanging around the Wild Card picture all year, maybe sneaking in with another seventh seed. I don’t really think they will crater, but it’s easier to formulate a crater scenario (Morgan flunks left tackle, the inconsistent WRs remain inconsistent, Parsons gets triple-teamed for 13 games, two Ridder losses) than a Super Bowl scenario.

I have a feeling that many of the Packers fans who have been coming at me for a few weeks also have 7-to-10 wins penciled in. A few comments I received had a tone along the lines of: “No one’s saying they will win the Super Bowl, buddy!” If no one is saying that the team with the veteran quarterback that traded away two first-round picks for an All Pro defender has ANY chance of competing for the Super Bowl, well, I guess we can agree on something! We’re supposed to be talking about teams like the Packers as Super Bowl contenders, not arguing whether they will finish in second or third place in their division.

I anticipate I will get some feedback. Some will be of the nitpicky variety. Yes, I’m aware Golden caught a key touchdown in the playoffs, thank you. I didn’t mention Xavier McKinney, Edgerrin Cooper and others because I’m not claiming the Packers are the Jets or something: their good players will still be good. I know who Savion Williams is, and knew who Savion Williams was before the person @ing me did. There will be some discussion of the Packers’ cap management, and there is nothing I relish more than having Spotrac figures recited at me. I am sure I oversimplified some things; feel free to nitpick!

But please don’t expect me to change my mind. If the last 4,000 words convince you of anything, it’s that I have really thought about the Packers, not as a fan or local reporter, or as some Bears fan, or even in wearing my Defector Why Your Team Sucks pinch-hitter’s cap, but as someone who has analyzed 32 NFL teams for 20 years. I am not some Packers hater. I don’t make any hay by criticizing them. I just spotted a team moving backwards in the offseason, then got a lot flak for pointing it out. If I’m wrong, it wouldn’t be the first time. But if I am right and the Packers do decline, remember where you heard about the possibility first.