Popemobiles and Purple Propeller Beanies (Mailbag Pt. 1)

As is often the case, Mailbag spiraled out of control because you asked so many interesting questions. So Part 1 will cover your more conventional questions. Later installments will dig into the more in-depth and esoteric questions. I am a little under the weather, and it's June, so the mail may be a little sluggish this week.

If the season ended today, and all you had to go on was what you learned from free agency and the draft, who are your AFC and NFC playoff teams, in order? – Dave S.

I will now submit my rankings without consulting the DVOA projections, lest I give away too many spoilers. Of course, I am well-versed about the projections for the eight teams I covered in FTN Almanac, which will be available for download on July 8th!

NFC Predictions 

Rams: ‘Nuff said?

Seahawks: Top Wild Card at 13-4 or something.

Lions: Folks forget how dominating they can be when they aren’t injury-plagued and/or self-destructing on fourth downs.

Eagles: Will finish 10-7 or so but win the division.

Bears: Defense will hold them back a bit.

Panthers: 9-8 by the grace of heaven.

Cowboys: A completely overhauled defense will help nudge them past the 49ers and Packers for the final Wild Card. 

AFC Predictions

Chiefs: They’re ba-aack.

Texans: Offense? We don’t need no stinking offense!

Bills: Brandon Beane and Joe Brady will tear rotator cuffs patting themselves on the back for building a team that’s almost, but not quite, as dominant as previous Bills teams. 

Ravens: They are also ba-ack, but not quite as ominously.

Patriots: 11-6 thanks to a 5-1 divisional record.

Broncos: Boring, but effective.

Bengals: OK, I took a peek at the DVOA projections. You should take a peek at their schedule.

What camp battles and “camp battles” do you have your eyes on? – Tom Burton

I can’t really think about camp battles right now, except for the obvious Kyler-versus-McCarthy stuff.

Writing eight FTN Almanac chapters in May and June turns the whole league into a blur and my brain to sludge. Studying the Cardinals’ kicker battle or the Commanders’ secondary during OTAs is like falling down a deep well. I plan to spend the next few weeks climbing out of the well. Come mid-July, I will knuckle down and study the Jaguars running back situation like it’s my job. Because it is my job.

Also, assuming Mahomes isn’t somehow an Adrian Peterson-style mutant who is way ahead of schedule, how many wins does Andy Reid pull out of a Justin Fields/Kenneth Walker backfield? – Tom Burton

I think Mahomes may, in fact, have a mutant healing factor. I also once saw Carson Wentz return from a December ACL/LCL injury in Week 3; if he can do it, Mahomes can do it better.

The Chiefs start out with the Broncos and Colts at Arrowhead, then the Dolphins and Raiders on the road. Andy Reid is fully capable of creating a customized gameplan for Justin Fields that allows the Chiefs to go 3-1 in that span, against that slate. Then comes the bye. Then almost definitely comes Mahomes. 

I’ll keep it simple:

Two years into the 2024 QB class, who are you betting your five-year future on: Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels? – Erik T.

Drake Maye. He was legitimately outstanding last year, no matter how radically you adjust for strength-of-schedule. A.J. Brown and Romeo Doubs represent significant upgrades.

Williams improved broadly as last year wore on; folks who think his game is limited to late-game miracles weren’t watching him carefully against tougher opponents in the second half of the season. There’s no reason to give up on Daniels yet, though injuries and the supporting cast are concerns. Early reports about new coordinator David Blough are encouraging; he sounds more like a Ben Johnson type than a Kliff Kingsbury type. 

Five years from now, we will probably still be talking about Maye, Williams and Daniels as playoff-bound quarterbacks. Bo Nix, too.

Do the Broncos pick up Nix's option after this season? Or does he backslide enough that they try doing the Daniel Jones thing with him? – Dave Harrell

The bar to pick up a fifth-year option, particularly for a quarterback, is pretty low. If he’s the starter, then it’s cost effective to pick up his option, which provides two years of negotiating leverage while the team makes up its mind. The Giants handled the Daniel Jones situation in multiple stupid ways. 

Nix ranked 16th in passing DYAR in his second season, with some rushing value. His DVOA was above average. The Broncos reached the AFC title game, in part because Nix threw three touchdown passes against the Bills. Had Nix not broken his ankle at the end of that game, the Broncos would likely have reached the Super Bowl. 

I am not sure where folks think the minimum threshold for quarterback play is set. If you are drumming up professional jeopardy for Nix for non-injury reasons, you have set that threshold a little high.

What do you make of the ongoing Lamar Jackson contract ridiculousness, and his future both as a Raven and as a player in general? The vibe to me as a somewhat passive Ravens follower/fan is that he does not want to be in Baltimore anymore and is happy to play out his contract on his way to free agency, regardless of the impact on his chances of winning. Am I off the mark? – Eric

Lamar Jackson’s agent is his mother. With all due respect to Jackson’s mother, she has no idea what she is doing. Every Jackson contract issue boils down to the fact that the Ravens are negotiating with an unqualified amateur. The Jackson family appears to handle contract negotiations the way I handle the taxes for my LLC: procrastination until beyond the last second, then panicky confusion when I get an angry letter from the government. Jackson himself is rather taciturn, which further confuses matters.

The reason Jackson trade rumors went nowhere three years ago was because teams like the Falcons didn’t even know who to call – some Jackson buddy was unofficially handling his contract at that point – and couldn’t count on negotiations proceeding in a professional manner.

Some players who claim to not have an agent actually have one: Diego Pavia, for example. Others, like Caleb Williams, have parents who have at least made connections around the league and, for all their missteps, have some stomach for the role. From what I can gather, Jackson’s mother hasn’t even taken the step of trading contact info with someone like Seth Wickersham. 

A lot of folks get weird when the subject of sports agents comes up; there are all sorts of conflicting semiotics surrounding the conversation. I don’t care how smart they are or how clever mom and dad are: athletes in their early 20s need agents to represent their financial interests in the current professional sports landscape. 

Am I crazy for being optimistic about the Steelers being a super bowl dark horse team this year?

Reasons for yinzer delusion:

1. New defensive coordinator and a defense that, looking at the depth chart, seems loaded with talent.

2. Mike McCarthy's offenses moved the ball in Dallas. Is a 2025 Sam Darnold-esque performance too much to expect on the high end of possible outcomes for 2026 Aaron Rodgers?

This team is giving vibes of going 11-6 and then winning a surprising amount of playoff games. As much as I was against the McCarthy hire initially, the more I stare at it the more it begins to seem crazy enough to work. Maybe I need a darkness retreat. Or maybe I don't. – Mothman

The Steelers overall roster is very good. The schedule is manageable. The problems are Mike McCarthy and Aaron Rodgers.

McCarthy’s teams can be counted on to lose a game or two that they should win because of his asleep-at-the-wheel coaching style. Mike Tomlin’s teams usually won a game or two they should have lost, so yinzers may be in for an unpleasant shock.

Rodgers was operating at the absolute limit last year of what a quarterback is capable of if he is unwilling to take even a single hit. Tomlin and Arthur Smith built a Popemobile offense to keep Rodgers safe and happy: extra linemen, multi-tight end sets, tons of quick micropasses. Rodgers still got hurt, though only briefly. Rodgers did not get any younger or more spry in the offseason, so McCarthy and Brian Angelichio must make similar accommodations in 2026. Even if they work, they will restrict what the Steelers can do offensively.

Also, Rodgers loathes McCarthy, and both men are different and conflicting flavors of asshole. I am sure they have wallpapered over their differences enough to get through the summer. Let’s see what happens after the first Steelers loss.

Why does the national media always have Jalen Hurts on a performance improvement plan (i.e. one bad game from being shit canned by Howie)? I went and checked his passing DVOA and he's about 11th year to year. He does all the fun things really well: throws bombs, scrambles. He also does the Peyton Manning stuff at the line. Everyone knows his weaknesses but it feels insane to be talking about a prove it year for a 27-year old QB covered in winner-sauce. – Mike K.

This question inspired some conversation among readers. One response:

Philly has a local fan base which has a hard time enjoying success. Add to that a 24/7 media landscape driven by ad impressions where any random retired high school math teacher can set themselves up as an "expert". How do you drive traffic?

(1) Provide fact based analysis with witty cultural references.

(2) Engage in clickbait fan fiction.

(3) And most recently, generate AI slop.

Only one of these takes talent and effort, and thus cuts into profit margins. There just isn't really enough to write/talk about all day everyday. Thus the reason I've not listened to sports radio or watched any ESPN shows for years.

I'll close with Sturgeon's Law, "90% of everything is crap." Never truer than today. –Steve Mattan

Lotta truth here! But then AI got dragged into the conversation.

I asked Claude why is Jalen Hurts a bad quarterback.

It responded:

His accuracy and pocket mechanics have always been a question mark. When he can’t run, he’s often exposed as a below-average thrower.

• Struggles against elite defenses — The Eagles were bounced in the Wild Card by the 49ers (19-23) in January 2026, and Hurts tends to shrink in high-stakes moments against top competition.

• Mid-season collapses — The 2025 season saw the Eagles lose to the Bears on Thanksgiving, get blown out by the Giants 34-17, and lose late to Dallas and Washington. That’s not elite QB play.

• Heavily system-dependent — His success is tied to a strong run game and elite offensive line. Strip those away and he looks ordinary.

• Decision-making under pressure — He’s prone to holding the ball too long or forcing runs when the pocket breaks down instead of going through progressions.

• Limited arm talent — He lacks the elite arm strength or touch to consistently push the ball downfield with anticipation throws the way top-tier QBs do.

Wow it really is that easy to create takes without knowing much. I don't actually know what's up with Hurts. Anyone can AI slopify a take and read it on their YT channel. Give it a hot take title; voila tens of thousands of instant content creators – GTcounterfootball

Cripes. How depressing. It’s remarkable how easily your basic television/radio hot take provider could be replaced by an AI Takebot. If someone made a Takebot that looked like an anime princess, Pat McAfee would be pumping gas three days later. So there is some upside.

Anyway, my neighbor came fuming out of his house to grouse to me three weeks ago because he heard some sportstalk yammerer talking about 2026 as a “Prove It Year” for Hurts. My industry really needs to place some guardrails around cliches like “Prove It Year.” Like, anyone who uses the term “Prove It Year” on a quarterback who led his team to a championship in the last four years gets a two-week suspension or something. Or maybe Monty Python’s Medieval knight can hit them with a rubber chicken on air.

Hurts’ game has plenty of flaws. He doesn’t belong in the Patrick Mahomes/Josh Allen “tier,” though thinking about quarterbacks in terms of “tiers” is one of the dumb, reductive mindsets that leads to conversations about “Prove It Years.” As I like to say: Great isn’t something a quarterback is; it’s something a quarterback does. Hurts has accomplished great things, and is therefore capable of accomplishing more.

It’s important to remember that the Neverending Quarterback Narrative is just that: a narrative. Like any story, it requires "inciting events." The Hurts/Brown divorce has been an inciting event for months. Trade speculation has kept Brown in the news since February, which in turn has kept Hurts in the news. Television/radio/Internet programmers choose topics that are already being talked about, which creates an echo chamber. 

When someone is forced to recycle the same talking points for weeks, it doesn’t matter if they are a McAfee-type or someone who is more likely to pore soberly over film and stats: it’s easy to end up sounding a lot like Claude.

Are we surprised that Sean Payton doesn't have a bigger coaching tree? He has been around seemingly forever, had uninterrupted success for the most part, and he's an offensive mastermind who wears a visor. Sean McVay has been around for a fraction of the time and all his assistants seem to get jobs. Unless I am missing someone, Payton's tree is Dan Campbell and Dennis Allen. What gives? – Benjamin Evans

The answer: “Pete Carmichael,” as Kit Wren pointed out in the thread:

Part of that is Pete Carmichael being the Riker to his Picard for so long. I kind of think coaching trees are more of a trivia question than a material effect. – Kit Wren

Payton’s first offensive coordinator was Doug Marrone, who went on to forgettable and weird head-coaching stints with the Bills and Jaguars. Payton promoted Carmichael when Marrone left in 2009. Carmichael was the Saints’ offensive coordinator for 15 seasons, outlasting Payton himself.

Carmichael interviewed for the Raiders head coaching vacancy late in the 2012 season and the Bears head coaching job in 2013. There may have been other interviews, but he ceased to be a hot candidate before the late 2010s. He has a reputation as a quiet factotum and buffer for Payton. He happily stuck around when Dennis Allen was promoted to head coach. Carmichael later followed Payton to the Broncos and is now working for Joe Brady, once a low-level assistant on his Saints staff, in Buffalo. He may not have the type of ego we associate with NFL head coaches. 

Carmichael choked out opportunities for young hotshot coaches to rise through the ranks under Payton. Joe Lombardi compounded the issue with two long stints as Drew Brees’ quarterback coach. Dan Campbell end-ran the problem by earning the assistant head coach title as a tight ends coach, and because of his interim stint with the Dolphins. Otherwise, the offensive pipeline under Payton was sealed off by a pair of loyalists.

Payton also preferred veteran defensive coordinators. Gary Gibbs was 54 when Payton hired him off the Cowboys staff to be his first defensive coordinator. Gregg Williams and Steve Spagnuolo were both high-profile coordinators with head coaching experience when Payton hired them; Rob Ryan was a long-tenured coordinator from a famous coaching family. Dennis Allen rose through the Saints ranks, left to be the Raiders head coach (after a brief stop in Denver) from 2012 to 2014, then returned to New Orleans to seal off the defensive side of the coaching pipeline until he succeeded Payton. Aaron Glenn rose through the ranks under Allen, but I don’t foresee him making a major contribution to any coaching trees.

I can’t understand some of these NFL trades. I’m thinking specifically of the Pickens trade to Dallas and Garrett to the Rams. Looking at all the teams who desperately need WR help, including contenders like the Chiefs or Bills, I don’t understand why one of them wouldn’t have traded a 2nd for Pickens. Or why any contender wouldn’t have tried to trade for Garrett? Who wouldn’t have made that trade? A first, second, and third round pick, none of them in the same year, and a young defensive starter. (That’s all Verse is. He’s not a superstar. The dude had 12 sacks in two years.) Why aren’t GMs shopping these offers around the league to get an even better offer? What am I missing here? – Scott

I am afraid that I may not understand what you don’t understand, Scott.

The Rams gave up a ton for Garrett. I am sure Andrew Berry put feelers out, but there is a very short list of teams that were in a position to make a serious offer. The Eagles and Patriots were busy with their own blockbuster canoodling, eliminating two potential suitors (though the Eagles reportedly nibbled), and the Browns probably did not consider their AFC North foes. 

Verse finished fifth in the NFL in pressures last year. He’s better than his raw stats suggest. 

Pickens is a dedicated malcontent, which is why he was on the trade market in the first place. The Cowboys briefly benched him for goofing off in Vegas last year, and he appeared to be pouting and lollygagging his way through a few games. (See: the loss to the Lions.) The fact that he ended up with Jerrah’s Wild West Rodeo after many contenders shied away from him may actually answer your question. Both the Bills and Chiefs have tried to upgrade their wide receiver corps in recent years. Those moves haven't worked out very well, but that's hindsight.

It’s easy to second-guess teams that don’t make splashy trades. Why didn’t the Bears offer two-first round picks, a second, a third and Montez Sweat for Garrett? Maybe because that is simply too much. Maybe because Ryan Poles is a ninny. NFL decision makers operate at various competence levels. But they are all trying! And all of them know how to use a telephone. Or employ someone who can dial for them.

Hey Mike! Your boy Matt Lombardo rewrote the narrative around the Ty Simpson pick after the Myles Garrett trade, because I guess Les Snead and Sean McVay are playing 3-D Galactic Chess because now they don’t need those draft picks because they have their first round draft pick QB of the future? Why is he wrong and why is the Ty Simpson pick still so bad and a harbinger of the Rams’ imminent collapse? – Kevin Langstaff.

Matt Lombardo uses his Between the Hashmarks website to provide a glimpse of what NFL insiders are telling each other. The galactic-chess interpretation of the Simpson selection (they knew they were trading picks for Myles Garrett; Simpson is the heir apparent to their Forever Dynasty) comes straight from league scuttlebutt. You will find other well-connected reporters offering similar theories. You will hear announcers explaining versions of the Simpson Gambit while Simpson is stumbling around in preseason games. 

Think of the NFL as a junior high cafeteria. Sean McVay sits at the head of the cool kids' table. Lesser coaches, execs, scouts, agents and others all have their own tables. Reporters sit with the barely-tolerated nerd herd.

If McVay struts into the cafeteria wearing a purple beanie with a propeller, 90% of the cool kids will be wearing purple propeller beanies by next Monday, and the rest of the cafeteria will soon buzz about how cool purple propeller beanies are and why. The beanie accentuates your cheekbones! I hear Sean can use HIS propeller to fly!

The school newspaper, run by the nerds, would dutifully report on the trend. Someone like Matt may stick to the facts and quotes while maintaining a little skepticism and detachment. But the more thirstily craving for cool-kid acceptance the reporter, the more fawning the coverage: Why Purple Propeller Beanies are Transcendently Amazing and Will Never Go Out of Fashion, by Albert Breer.  

(It should go without saying that pushing back against a fad goes about as well among NFL insiders as it does in junior high. Expressing skepticism on the record could result in the silent treatment, which can be lethal to a reporter's career.)

The Galactic Simpson Gambit doesn’t make sense because Simpson is a bad prospect. Claiming that McVay can transform Simpson using quarterback alchemy undermines the logic of the Simpson selection: if McVay can transform Simpson, then he could burn a conditional seventh-round pick to transform J.J. McCarthy, or bring Baker Mayfield back as a free agent when Matthew Stafford retires and roll with him.

Even if Simpson grows into a “mid-tier” quarterback via McVay/Stafford osmosis, he will be a “mid-tier” quarterback on an aging roster with few draft picks when 2028/2029 arrives.

Meanwhile, left tackle Alaric Jackson has new legal issues and a pre-existing health problem; Blake Miller would look great in Rams colors right now. The Rams lack quality kick/punt returners, and KC Concepcion was sitting there when Simpson was drafted. (Concepcion would also have provided a smidgen of Puka Nacua dumbass insurance.) 

The Rams undermined their own all-in strategy and outsmarted themselves. They will regret their purple propeller beanie when someone muffs a punt in a playoff game. But when they show up in the cafeteria without it, everyone else will throw theirs away and pretend they never thought it was cool.

Oh, and in case it wasn't clear: I don’t sit at the cool kids' table, nor with the nerd herd. I eat my lunch in the faculty lounge.

I have noticed that the kicker seems to be a very important position on teams. The Packers and Falcons failed to win their respective divisions in large part because of unreliable kicking. Yet no team seems willing to devote much in the way of resources to something that often decides a game. Why? – Nicholas

The Packers drafted a kicker: sixth-round pick Trey Smack! Early reports indicate that he stinks.

The Falcons, meanwhile, signed 41-year old Nick Folk. Kicker is the only position where signing someone over 35 makes more sense than trying to find a long-term solution.

Kickers have steadily gotten more accurate, over longer distances, throughout the course of football history. That evolution is still in progress and may be accelerating instead of slowing down. 

Twenty years ago, John Kasay led the NFL in 50-plus yard field goals, with four of them. Robbie Gould, one of the All-Pro kickers in 2006, did not attempt a 50+ yarder that year and missed four kicks inside 50 yards. The league-wide field goal percentage in 2006 was 81.4%, with the typical kicker attempting 2.7 field goals of 50+ yards. Last year, the league-wide rate was 85.6%, with the typical kicker attempting 8.3 field goals of 50-plus yards.

Imagine trying to evaluate collegiate or free agent kickers under such circumstances. A kicker who met a coach’s benchmarks 10 years ago may be a liability now. The problem is compounded at the college level, where there just aren’t enough kickers to go around, and potentate college coaches may settle for whichever strapping lad doesn’t cause them to throw a temper tantrum during spring practice. 

It’s also crucial to remember that field goal percentages are almost always based on small samples. Smack attempted 64 field goals in his college career. Flip a coin 64 times and it is very unlikely that you end up with 32 heads and 32 tails. You may come up with 40 heads and 24 tails, but you would be foolish to conclude that you had found a magic coin that comes up heads 63% of the time. Brandon Aubrey has attempted 44 field goals of 50+ yards; it would be a mistake to assume his career 79.5% conversion rate – which decreased last year – is somehow set in stone. 

Coaches can work out a college or free agent kicker, interview him, study his mechanics and whatnot, but they are still basing much of their evaluation on a few dozen meaningful events per season. And it's impossible to simulate Seattle or Foxboro in January, or a phone blowing up and icy locker room stares after a missed game-winner, in a practice setting.

Under the circumstances, NFL coaches are generally doing an outstanding job of finding the best kickers, which is why league-wide field goal rates and lengths keep increasing. Drill down to any specific team or player, however, and investing too many resources on even a proven kicker becomes risky.

That said, the Rams should have tried to dislodge Brandon Aubrey from the Cowboys, even if it took a record-setting contract and surrendering a draft pick due under the rules of the transitional tag. It would be a shame for this year’s Dream Team to lose a bunch of games on missed field goals, just like they did last year.