Stop Worrying and Learn to Love Parity

This is Part 1 of a multi-installment Mailbag. It will cover many of your questions about what has happened so far in the 2026 season.

This installment will NOT cover your Eagles questions, because I just can't right now. I promise to answer them later in the week, as well as many of your Hall of Fame and conceptual questions.

Let's get started!

Parity and the Las Vegas Raiders

The Browns and Raiders are looking like forces to be reckoned with, and the Jets look better than 1-3, while the Bengals, Lions and Packers look like re-heated Burger King. I'm trying not to overreact after Week Four and understand that this is a long season, but WTF am I missing? – Jared Paventi

The main thing you are missing is differences in early-season schedules. More on that in a moment. 

You may also be overreacting to the results of close games and the conversations surrounding particular teams. The Browns, for example, have won three games by a combined 10 points, two of them on fourth-quarter comebacks. The Bengals, meanwhile, are in a state of narrative whiplash: they were the toast of the league after their 2-0 start, but it may be Week 7 before they beat a non-winless opponent. The Jets are really coasting on feel-good vibes and a Week 1 win over the Titans. They are 1-3 on merit, and fading. 

A similar question:

I know it’s early, and I know the NFL is designed for parity, but the whole league seems to be on about the same level this year. 

Look at the teams with the best/winning records (Chiefs, Vikings, 49ers, Browns, Bills, Ravens, Seahawks, Bears, Giants, Jaguars, and Raiders). None of those teams look dominant or scary. They don’t even look much better than the teams at the bottom of the standings. 

Is this just a mirage caused by early season factors (nobody plays in the preseason, ridiculous numbers of new coordinators, teams haven’t figured out what’s working or not working yet) or is this a year where every week is going to bring multiple upsets? Might it be a good year to predict an oddball team like the Jaguars to win it all? – Scott

You may have a high threshold for dominance. The 49ers have a +58 point differential though four games, two of them against opponents that reached conference championships in 2025. The Jaguars are +51. Both the 49ers and Jaguars were playoff teams last year; the 49ers are star-studded perennial contenders despite also being the Final Destination film franchise. 

The Bears have two 20-point wins over 2025 playoff teams (yes, the Panthers count) and only lost one game by six points in a downpour; they just won two games with backup quarterbacks. The Chiefs are still a bunch of Hall of Famers with multiple Super Bowl rings. Are you looking for the 2007 Patriots or 1985 Bears?

As for the teams at the bottom of the standings, we will hear from Dolphins and Bucs fans a little later. 

One early-season issue with evaluating teams is the disparities in schedules. The Rams have faced the 49ers, Broncos and Eagles, traveling all over the globe in search of television windows. The Giants just won back-to-back Titans and Cardinals games at home. The NFL front-loads big games into the schedules of great and/or popular teams for television purposes, which also results in lots of early-season matchups between teams that finished in third/fourth place in 2025. 

Read on …

1. How good are the Raiders?

2. It looks like I got the evaluation SO wrong when I pronounced Klint Kubiak a failson thru the 2024 season. Specifically I wrote:

As recently as last year [2024], I wouldn’t hire Klint Kubiak to fold my laundry.

Maybe he’s just a late bloomer.

So – what the hell? Was Kubiak always good, and his light was hidden under a bushel of bad context? Or is he a late bloomer who suddenly "got it" in his 15th year of coaching? Or is he actually no good, never has been, and Mike Macdonald / Kirk Cousins have been doing the heavy lifting for the past year plus 4 games?

Can we just never, ever tell what we're seeing, when we try to peek in from this far outside and sift thru careers deciphering resumés?-- JimZipCode

1. The Raiders have beaten three teams with a combined 1-11 record through Week 4. They have pulled themselves off the improv comedy tour and into the seventh-seed conversation. I like to think that they simply swapped places with the Chargers.
2. You may have been a little negative on Kubiak in 2024. He generated a lot of buzz as the Saints coordinator at the start of that season, before Derek Carr and Chris Olave got hurt. The 49ers reached overtime of the Super Bowl with Kubiak as passing game coordinator in 2023. 

Kubiak is 39, so he is not a late bloomer. He climbed the coaching ladder at a relatively normal pace. Perhaps you were just hyper-aware of his nepo status? I’ll admit that the name “Klint Kubiak” inspires skepticism. 

I’m not anointing Kubiak the Next Mike Shanahan yet, or even the Next Gary Kubiak. He’s running a tight ship. The Raiders were basically coached by Maxx Crosby in 2024 and 2025. Adding Kubiak and some ultra-professional veterans, including Kirk Cousins, has stabilized them.

What about the Raiders' success has surprised you? How much of it is due to Kubiak's coaching? Would you ride Cousins as long as they are winning, or give the keys to Mendoza at some point? – Mitch L.

I am surprised by how much I am enjoying the Raiders’ success. It’s fun to root for Ashton Jeanty and Brock Bowers. It’s fun to say “Hezekiah Masses.” I am loving Uncle Kirk Cousins’ sudden transition to beloved elder statesman.

As I said in the previous post, much of the Raiders’ early success is schedule-assisted. We will get a better sense of them in Foxboro next week, then against the Bills and Rams. Fernando Mendoza’s day will come in 2026. But it might now wait until the Week 13 bye. 

Kirk Cousins, Brian Flores & Friends

How funny is it that it’s looking like the Vikings should’ve just kept Kirk Cousins? – MT

It’s hilarious, but I am unsure how plausible it would have been. 

The Falcons paid Cousins $90 million in guarantees, then gritted their teeth through the 2024 season, when he was recovering from an Achilles injury and could barely waddle around in the pocket. What would the conversation around Cousins have been if he spent 2024 and 2025 with the Vikings? Would coaches and GMs have been fired for keeping him? What would the current roster look like if Cousins was eating about $30 million in cap space? 

The Vikings would certainly have drafted a successor during Cousins’ extended tenure, just as the Falcons and Raiders did. Who would it have been? How early in 2024 or 2025 would fans have clamored for him?

Shipping Cousins and the Vikings in 2025 is a little bit like looking at someone who is bouncing from bad relationship to bad relationship after a divorce and wondering if they would be better off with their ex, who just landed a decent job and started doing Pilates. The real answer is usually “No.”

Why aren't other teams copying the tactics of Brian Flores? Lack of experienced players to run the scheme, fear of getting burned, or something else? – Andy Kushlan

Fear of getting burned must be a major factor. Blitzing as often as Flores does leads to blown coverages and big offensive plays; a coach could easily get fired before getting the necessary pieces in place. If I am an unestablished defensive coordinator, I’m copying Vic Fangio’s tactics so I always have some safeties in deep coverage. It will make me less likely to be singled out as the cause for a team's failures.

Flores also hasn’t germinated a coaching tree to carry on his scheme. Commanders defensive coordinator Daronte Jones was a Flores lieutenant, but he’s taking orders from Dan Quinn, an old Seahawks Cover-3 guy. Jaguars DC Anthony Campanile was on Flores’ Dolphins staff, but his defense does not look much like a Flores defense. Steelers DC Patrick Graham also worked with Flores in Miami, but he’s more like a cousin on the Belichick tree than a protege. 

Kevin O’Connell has also failed to develop any sort of tree, so no former Vikings offensive coordinators have poached and promoted any of Flores’ assistants in the last two years. 

Campanile will be a head coach in 2027. Jones may be trending toward a head coaching job. Maybe we will see more Flores impersonators when his former lieutenants earn promotions, or if the Vikings go 13-4 and sack Matthew Stafford eight times in a playoff game or something.

What do you think about the Steelers’ defense under Patrick Graham so far? They're playing zone on close to 90% of coverage snaps, which makes them awfully predictable. On the other hand, with Joey Porter Jr. gone to Dallas (amazing how quickly his 'back injury' improved) they don't seem to have any legit cover corners. Do you think this is mainly a Graham scheme problem, a personnel problem, or some combination thereof - and is there any realistic path to this situation improving? - Perennially Resigned Steelers Fan Michael K Baranowski

A team with cornerback issues is better off playing zone than man! Also, you can do a lot worse at corner than Jamel Dean (playing rather well) and Asante Samuel (not so much), with a banged-up Jalen Ramsey doing slot/matchup stuff at safety.

Per the Sports Info Solutions database, the Steelers have played 72 snaps in Cover 2, 3, 4 or 6. They have played 23 snaps in various versions of man coverage. These are not extreme splits. The Seahawks, for example, have only played 18 pass snaps in man coverage. The Lions, with their borked secondary (and lots of time on the field) have played 103 pass snaps in various zone schemes.

(If you are wondering why Man + Zone does not equal Total Pass Attempts, it’s because of goal line plays and screens – it can hard to identify coverage on a slot screen – plus prevent defenses where seven defenders are 20 yards deep. Such plays have accounted for about 10-to-25 pass attempts allowed per team through four games. Don’t trust anyone who can tell you precisely what coverage a defense ran on every single pass attempt.)

My issue with the Steelers defense is that they produced just 42 pass pressures, via SIS. T.J. Watt and Alex Highsmith are the only defenders applying consistent pressure. Graham is probably sending five rushers more than he would like to. 

Unreliable tackling has also been a problem. Pro Football Reference charges the Steelers with 31 missed tackles, the fifth-highest total in the NFL.

The real reason the Steelers defense may look like a problem is because Steelers fans are conditioned to expect the defense to carry the offense to victories. They won’t be able to rely on that in 2026. That’s not so much a Graham problem as an Everyone Else With Authority problem.

(I will answer the Aaron Rodgers Hall of Fame questions in a later installment!)

Chiefs, Cowboys, Texans, Bucs, Chargers, Etc. ("Etc." means "Dolphins.")

What is the most surprising thing that has happened this season? (Could be a team, player, coach, game or whatever.) – Scott de Brestian

The 0-4 Texans and Chargers starts are surprising. I thought the Texans would be 3-1 at this point. No amount of Justin Herbert skepticism can account for losses to the Cardinals and Raiders.

Given that the Chiefs' return to excellence has been boosted so much by the running game, how much credit should Eric Bieniemy get for that? Yes, we all know Kenneth Walker III was the Super Bowl MVP, but he's also putting up the best numbers of his career. Has Bieniemy been that much of a difference maker? – Tom Nawrocki

Bieniemy deserves a great deal of credit for the success of the Chiefs offense this year. Walker has indeed made a huge difference, but the Chiefs running game looks like it did when Bieniemy was Reid’s coordinator from 2018-22, with lots of unusual formations and misdirection.

When Reid has some functionary serving as his top lieutenant, the running plays start to look like “waste pitches” that are designed for Patrick Mahomes to easily audible away from. 

Through four games the Dallas Cowboys are in the top 5 of all teams since 2000 in points per drive. Tyler Smith returns soon. Just how high is the ceiling?

Is there a small part of you that concedes it's a possibility that at some point the soap opera ends with a Lombardi? Because the upper range of realistic outcomes for that unit includes a deep playoff run without a great defense and special teams. – Carlitos

Points per drive? Someone must have really dug deep into the data mines for that one. I have been in the NFL stats business for over 20 years and cannot recall points per drive getting a mention.

The Cowboys could win a Super Bowl in the next two or three years. Their probability is higher than, say, the Titans or Dolphins. It’s higher than some early-season surprise teams like the Giants and Browns.

Soap operas aside, the Cowboys defense currently ranks 32nd in DVOA, yet again. They allowed the Giants to run through them, the Texans to throw over them and the Ravens to beat them in seven seconds. Also, their head coach likes to both settle for 28-yard field goals and randomly attempt 60-plus yarders, so it’s not like they are gonna game-manage their way to close wins. 

The Cowboys should win the NFC East this year. Let’s see if they can unlock that achievement before discussing their upper range of outcomes! 

What's wrong with the Texans Defense? Have they just had some rough schedule luck, combined with up and down offensive performances, or are there deeper issues? – Steve

Here are some observations:

• Both Derek Stingley and Kamari Lassiter have made a bunch of “almost” plays against top receivers in coverage this year. Wow, what a catch in the end zone by Ja’Marr Chase against Stingley! Gosh, Lassiter was stride-for-stride with George Pickens, but Dak Prescott threw a raindrop! Stingley and Lassiter remain one of the NFL's best cornerback tandems, but they have already faced two of the NFL's top five receiver duos, and have lost their share of those matchups.
• Danielle Hunter is getting older.
• The Texans barely held a lead in any game until Week 4 against the Cowboys. Defenses that are playing from behind get fewer opportunities for sacks and turnovers. The Bengals, in particular, spent Week 2 playing “keepaway,” while the Bills were able to hammer away with three tight ends for most of Week 1.
• The Texans defensive scheme is incredibly static.

That last issue is something DeMeco Ryans can and should do something about. 

The Texans line up on snap after snap with Stingley on the left, Lassiter on the right and both safeties deep. Their linebackers are always off the ball. The Texans are always in nickel, rarely in base or dime. Blitzes are rare. There’s no NASCAR-type package to get Jadeveon Clowney on the field with Will Anderson and Hunter. If CeeDee Lamb is the slot, Jalen Pitre covers him. Ja’Marr Chase, Tee Higgins and Jerry Rice could be in trips formation on the left side, and the Texans would still be in their standard defensive shell. 

That worked in 2025, when the Texans defense was kicking the snot out of everyone. It’s not working in 2026. Ryans needs to stop using the Ask Madden defensive calls and start worrying about matchups and blitzes like every other coach.

So who is the first sacrificial lamb for the chargers debacle of a season? – Manny

Great question! Let’s look at the candidates:

• Jim Harbaugh: He’s the sacrificer, not the sacrifice.
• Justin Herbert: It tickles me to consider. But nah.
• Mike McDaniel: A prime candidate. The issue is that such a quick hook would make Harbaugh look capricious and impetuous. Harbaugh does not do things that make Harbaugh look bad.
• Adam Gase (Passing Game Specialist): Intriguing, but not powerful enough within the organization to send a message.
• Chris O’Leary (Defensive Coordinator): The Chargers’ issues are not on defense. O’Leary is more likely to be thrown back into the assistant pool at the end of the season.

And the winn … er, Loser is:

• GM Joe Hortiz: He’s a former Ravens front office worker bee, hired via family group chat. Harbaugh calls the shots for the Chargers. But Hortiz can plausibly be blamed for the state of the offensive line and receiver corps. And Harbaugh won’t look impetuous for firing someone who has been on the job for three years. 

Farewell, Joe. It’s like we barely knew ye.

Harbaugh is braying like an absolute jackass these days, so something may happen soon.

How do the Dolphins not go 0-17? And if they do, is there any way Coach or GM survive? – James-London

The Dolphins could win on Sunday! Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins may be out for the Bengals. The Miami forecast is in the high 80s and humid; the Dolphins can force the Bengals to stand on the sunny sideline, or whatever they do. The Dolphins were 7-point underdogs at this writing. They could cover!

I think the Dolphins are capable of splitting with the Jets, who are trending back toward Jetsville. Beyond that, it’s a matter of catching some opponent like the Chargers during an injury crisis, or hoping to catch the Bills or Patriots resting starters in January. The Dolphins simply lack the manpower to beat a decent team without some set of extenuating circumstances.

GM Jon-Eric Sullivan will keep his job by reminding Stephen Ross that he was hired to clear away $184 million in dead cap space in 2026. Sullivan and head coach Jeff Hafley are a matched set, so Hafley will only be in danger if there is a locker-room mutiny. And would anyone even notice if the randos in the Dolphins locker room mutinied? Oh no, Storm Duck is mad! What do we do? Oh yeah: replace him with someone who doesn’t sound like a cartoon character.

1. Why are my Bucs so bad?

2. Do you remember ever seeing a team starting a rookie UDFA QB this early in a season that it isn't trying to tank?

3. Will Todd Bowles last until Halloween or Thanksgiving before getting fired? – Ori Lauterbach

1.The Buccaneers rank 17th in DVOA through four games. Their point differential is just -20. They played tough with UDFA Jalon Daniels at quarterback in Week 4. Analysis suggests that they are a mediocre team that can’t get a break.

I see the Buccaneers as what the Eagles will be if they stay the course for another year or two. Many of the best Buccaneers players – Vita Vea, Chris Godwin, Tristan Wirfs, Antoine Winfield – are still Brady-era leftovers. Young contributors like Emeka Egbuka, Yaya Diaby and Bucky Irving have maxed out as “young contributors” instead of blossoming into superstars. The returns keep diminishing, a little at a time.

2.My search of the Stathead database uncovered 30 undrafted rookie starting quarterbacks since the NFL-AFL merger in 1970. Nine of them, including Erik Kramer, were 1987 strikebreakers, leaving 21 UDFA rookie quarterbacks in normal seasons. Undrafted rookies were rarer back when the draft lasted 12 or 17 rounds, but whatever.

Before Daniels, the most recent UDFA quarterbacks to start were Brady Cook, Max Brosmer, Tommy DeVito, Tyson Bagent, Anthony Brown, David Blough, Duck Hodges, Kyle Allen and Connor Shaw. All were absolute emergency starters, not primary backups seeing early-season action. 

Eagles fans may remember Brad Goebel, who started Weeks 6 and 7 of the 1991 season after Randall Cunningham, Jim McMahon and Pat Ryan were all injured. Goebel threw zero touchdowns and six interceptions in two losses.

Raiders fans may recall Matt McGloin, who started six games in relief of future Browns wide receiver Terrelle Pryor in 2013.

And what Cowboys fan can forget Chad Hutchinson, who switched from football to baseball at Stanford, spent some years in the St. Louis Cardinals farm system, then rediscovered his passion for football after posting a 7.92 ERA in AAA ball in 2001 and getting briefly shelled in the majors? Jerry Jones signed Hutchinson for $5 million dollars to back up Quincy Carter, who … oh, it’s a whole thing. Hutchinson led the Cowboys to a 2-7 record as a rookie.

Anyway, to answer your question: no, I have never seen an organization start a UDFA rookie quarterback when things are going great.

3.Assuming Bowles makes it through Thursday night, he should reach the Week 10 bye. His staff is full of experienced coordinators who could take over.

I'm 64, in reasonably good health (knock wood). I won't live to see a Bills Super Bowl victory, will I? – Mike L

Along a similar vein ...

Who do you think wins a Super Bowl first: the Ravens or the Bills?

Both are seemingly snakebit franchises as of late, both have two of the most talented QBs of their generation, both have a vocal and passionate fanbase, yet both teams just seem to self-destruct at the worse possible moment due to self-inflicted errors or bad luck.

Despite living in Ravens country, I'd like to see the Bills win a Super Bowl first; the Ravens have two Super Bowl championships, while the Bills have one of the most cursed histories of any professional sports franchise. But what would it take for either/both franchises to finally get over the hump and win a title (besides the obvious "obtain an actual franchise wide receiver")? – Gordon

As Gordon points out, the Bills and Ravens have lived parallel lives since drafting Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson in 2018. Both have been perennial bridesmaids, usually to the Chiefs. Both changed coaches in 2025, though both reboots were rather soft, with powerful GMs remaining in place. Both teams seem to realize that they have reached the back ends of their Super Bowl windows. And both teams are held to unbelievably high standards by both fans and analysts: 3-1, with some blowout victories, just isn't good enough. They must be 7-0 through four weeks!

The trouble with predicting that a team won't win the Super Bowl is that your base odds of being correct are 96.875%. Even predicting against a powerhouse gives a base probability of being right of around 87%: there's no such thing as a team entering a season with a 20% chance of winning the Super Bowl.

Both the Bills and Ravens are better than they look right now. They are better than the Raiders and Browns, by wide margins.

The Bills have a 91.2% chance to reach the playoffs, per DVOA. The Ravens, with a harder schedule, have a 77.1% chance. Let's get these teams to the playoffs, then see what the field and their injury reports look like!

People like to describe Josh Allen as Superman. But isn't he more like Supergirl? There are definitely moments when he looks like he is A) on a faraway planet, and B) drunk as hell. – Jake Murray

Josh Allen is actually Superboy Prime. He sometimes tries to punch a hole in reality itself and causing a Crisis on Infinite Bills.

TOMORROW: Eagles stuff, even if it kills me. Also ... Aaron Rodgers, Hall of Famer? Ooooh, that's a tough one.